New Manhattan Institute Poll: Californians Keep Voting Blue Despite Wanting Reform

Manhattan Institute polling finds California voters back Democrats at the ballot box while rejecting the state's direction on homelessness, public-sector unions, and welfare. 

NEW YORK, NY – With Election Day only one month away, the Manhattan Institute's Jesse Arm, Matthew Shor, and Karl Abramson conducted a new survey, which found that California's Democratic dominance at the ballot box coexists with deep voter frustration over the state's direction and performance on its most pressing challenges. 

The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters statewide as well as a separate sample of 449 likely voters in the City of Los Angeles. Across the state, Democrats remain well positioned electorally, with Xavier Becerra holding a commanding 17-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race for governor and City Councilmember Nithya Raman holding a six-point advantage over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in Los Angeles. Half of Spencer Pratt's primary supporters say they plan not to vote in the mayoral race rather than support either finalist. 

Despite these electoral preferences, voters across California are dissatisfied with their state and many of its policies. Only 32% of Californians say their state is headed in a better direction than other states, while 45% say it is headed in a worse direction. Both Governor Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris receive net negative favorability ratings in their home state, with nearly a quarter of Harris's own 2024 voters viewing her unfavorably. On a range of major policy questions, California voters frequently exhibit preferences that depart sharply from California's traditionally progressive reputation. 

Click here to read Jesse Arm's X thread breaking down the results. 

Key findings include:

• Homelessness: By 60% to 29%, voters say the crisis is driven mainly by substance addiction and mental illness rather than housing costs. By 62% to 20%, they say providing treatment even without consent is more compassionate than leaving people on the streets, a view shared by majorities of Democrats and Raman supporters. 
• Proposition 40: Californians oppose the proposed billionaire wealth tax 50% to 35%. Independents oppose it by 51% to 34%, and Democrats support it by a 50% to 31% margin. 
• Direction of the state: 56% of Californians say their state is less business-friendly than its peers, and pluralities rate the state negatively on infrastructure, public safety, and corruption.
• Public-sector unions and welfare: 63% of respondents support limiting the power of public-sector unions to improve accountability and service delivery, including majorities of both Democrats and independents. 71% are concerned about waste, fraud, and abuse in the welfare system, and 53% want the state to crack down rather than expand access. 

These results suggest that Democratic victories in California ought not be read as endorsements of the status quo or as indicative of the state's long-term electoral future. Across issues ranging from taxation and welfare administration to homelessness and infrastructure, Californians are signaling a desire for reform and more effective governance. 

Click here to read the survey results.