Assessing the Issues: Surveying NYC’s Likely Mayoral Electorate on Policy

New Yorkers are not happy. Across nearly every major issue—crime, immigration, housing, taxes, mental health—voters express a deep sense that the city has lost its way. They believe that public safety has deteriorated and want more police officers on the streets and in the subway. They see a migrant crisis spiraling out of control, with broad majorities favoring tougher enforcement and cooperation with federal authorities. They support new housing development in principle but bristle at the idea of it being built in their own neighborhoods, a contradiction that has helped fuel the city's affordability crisis. They reject Gotham’s new congestion pricing scheme and strongly favor restoring the full SALT deduction. And they overwhelmingly believe that the city needs to do more to address untreated severe mental illness through involuntary commitment laws and expanded psychiatric facilities. Taken together, these findings reveal a frustrated electorate—one that, despite its deep blue leanings, is increasingly skeptical of the progressive status quo and open to more pragmatic, results-driven governance.

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This analysis expands on a recent look at the 2025 New York City mayoral race, drawing from the same survey conducted by the Manhattan Institute between January 24th and January 30th, 2025. The poll, conducted among 618 registered voters and weighted to reflect the likely electorate, included an oversample of Democrats to provide detailed insights into primary dynamics. While the initial release focused on candidate preferences and electoral trends, this follow up explores voter sentiment on key policy issues shaping the city’s future.

New York City voters remain deeply concerned about public safety. A majority (55%) believe that the city has become less safe since 2020, while just 16% say conditions have improved. This concern spans racial groups, with pluralities of Black (47%) and Hispanic (40%) voters, and an overwhelming majority of Asian (93%) voters—though it is worth noting that the Asian sample size in this poll is small—saying safety has declined.

Support for bolstering law enforcement is widespread: 70% favor adding more police officers, compared with just 10% who want fewer (Figure 1). Contrary to progressive narratives, 62% of Black and 72% of Hispanic New Yorkers support expanding the police force, with just 10% and 15%, respectively, favoring reductions. Even among Democrats, nearly seven in ten (69%) back an increased police presence. Support for more officers in the subway system is even stronger, with 81% in favor, including 85% of Democrats.

These numbers mark an increase from our April 2024 Manhattan Institute poll of the city’s likely 2025 mayoral electorate—at which point only 61% supported more police officers in New York City generally, and 71% favored more officers in the subway system.

Figure 1

New Yorkers also reject the idea that fare evasion is a victimless offense. A majority (55%) of Democrats and an overwhelming 78% of Republicans agree that enforcing fare payment is necessary to maintain order and safety.

On the issue of Rikers Island, voters oppose (–13) the city's plan to replace it with borough-based jails. The policy is underwater among both Democrats (–7) and Republicans (–29). When asked why they support or oppose the change, those in favor cite the unsafe conditions at Rikers (66%) as their primary reason, as opposed to a much smaller share (30%) who say that the city should shift resources away from incarceration and into social programs. Among opponents, the prevailing concern (69%) is that reducing capacity will put dangerous individuals back on the streets, while 30% believe the cost of new facilities is too high.

Additionally, New Yorkers favor rolling back the state's bail reform efforts. A majority (+25) support repealing bail reform laws and returning to the bail system before 2019, with net support among both Democrats (+21) and Republicans (+42). When presented with competing arguments, 53% endorsed pretrial detention for those who can’t afford cash bail because "too many people are being arrested and immediately released into the streets where they commit violent crimes," while just 35% agree that "people are innocent until proven guilty and shouldn’t be held in prison just because they can’t afford bail."

Most New Yorkers also remain disturbed by the recent killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. 20% of voters say the shooting was “justified,” while 66% believe it was unjustified—a surprising number, but one consistent with other public polling.

There is broad dissatisfaction with the city’s handling of illegal immigration. A majority (54%) believe that New York City’s policies are “too soft,” while 29% say they are “about right,” and just 8% think they are “too harsh” (Figure 2).

Figure 2

Concern over lenient policies is especially high among Asian (70%) and Black (50%) voters. Hispanic voters are more divided: 38% say that policies are “too soft,” while 46% believe they are “about right.”

Most New Yorkers believe that the migrant crisis is worsening. A majority (54%) say the situation is “less under control” than it was four years ago, while 32% believe it is “about the same.” Just 9% think conditions have improved. Concern is particularly high among white (63% less under control) and Asian (69%) voters.

New Yorkers continue to favor stricter immigration enforcement, with 44% saying all or most illegal migrants should be deported, compared to just 22% who support a pathway to citizenship. Another 26% support granting work authorization without citizenship. Even among Democrats, a plurality (39%) favor deportation, while a smaller share (30%) support work permits, and just 23% back a pathway to citizenship. Among Republicans, deportation is the clear majority position (72%).

As shown in Figure 3, 72% (+50) support cooperating with federal immigration officials to facilitate the deportation of illegal immigrants who have committed crimes, including strong majorities of both Democrats (+44) and Republicans (+82). Support is significantly lower—but still net positive (+4)—for deporting illegal immigrants who have not committed additional crimes. While Republicans overwhelmingly support broader enforcement (+71), Democrats oppose it on net (–10).

Figure 3

Black (72% support to 15% oppose), Hispanic (58% to 37%), and Asian (68% to 24%) voters broadly favor cooperating with federal authorities to deport illegal immigrants who have committed crimes. However, Hispanic voters show more internal division, with around a third “strongly opposing” such cooperation, highlighting some polarization within the community.

Support drops significantly when it comes to cooperating with federal authorities to deport illegal immigrants who have not committed additional crimes, with stark divides among minority groups. Black voters oppose such cooperation by a wide margin (35% support, 52% oppose), while Hispanics are more evenly split (50% support, 42% oppose). A majority of Asian voters (53%) favor such cooperation, while 39% are opposed. For Black New Yorkers in particular, whether an individual has committed a crime is a key factor in attitudes toward federal cooperation.

When presented with competing arguments, voters overwhelmingly reject New York City’s “sanctuary city” policy. 69% agree that the city should work with federal immigration enforcement to deport illegal immigrants who have committed crimes or made false asylum claims, while just 24% believe that New York should remain a sanctuary city and that cooperation with the federal government would create an environment of terror for immigrants. Support for federal cooperation spans racial groups, with 58% of Black, 71% of Hispanic, and 73% of Asian voters in favor.

New York City voters remain divided on the city’s “right to shelter” law, with 53% in support and 42% opposed. Strong opposition (26%) is nearly equal to strong support (27%), and Republicans overwhelmingly oppose the policy (–44).

A strong majority of New York City voters support the City of Yes zoning reform plan, with 71% in favor and 20% opposed. Support is broad-based, including 57% of Republicans (vs. 37% opposed) and 74% of Democrats (vs. 17%). Hispanic New Yorkers are particularly supportive, with 81% in favor and only 10% opposed. Hispanic voters also strongly agree (51%) that “the benefits of new housing development outweigh the drawbacks,” and they are the most supportive of housing development rather than subsidies as a solution to affordability.

Voters also broadly endorse pro-housing policies (Figure 4). 65% agree that the benefits of new housing development outweigh the drawbacks, while 24% disagree. Similarly, 66% support changing local zoning codes to allow more homes to be built, compared to 27% opposed. However, when asked specifically about their own neighborhoods, support dropped to 59% in favor and 33% opposed, highlighting a lingering “NIMBY” impulse.

Figure 4

That impulse may be driven by concerns over housing costs. When asked how increased housing development in their neighborhood would affect local rent prices, only 24% said it would lower rents, while 39% said it would increase them.

New Yorkers are also divided on how best to balance housing expansion with local control. 42% believe that the government should streamline regulations to make it easier to build new housing, while 49% prioritize community input, even if it slows the process. Democrats are split (45% favor streamlining vs. 46% prioritizing local input), while New York City Republicans are more skeptical of deregulation, favoring community input by a wider margin (58% to 37%).

When asked about the most effective way to make housing more affordable, voters were split: 24% favor building more housing, 20% favor subsidies, 28% say both equally, and 29% say neither or are unsure.

New York City voters remain opposed to congestion pricing, with 51% against the policy and just 39% in support. Strong opposition (41%) significantly outweighs strong support (24%). Republicans oppose the policy by a wide margin (72% to 23%), while Democrats are more split, with 40% in favor and 49% opposed.

By a 53-point margin (68% to 15%), voters support increasing the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $20,000. Support is strong across party lines, with net support at +51 among Democrats and +62 among Republicans.

When given a range of options for the SALT deduction, $20,000 is the most popular choice (33%), followed closely by unlimited deductions (32%). Only 9% prefer keeping the cap at $10,000, while 6% believe that New Yorkers should not be able to deduct any of their state and local taxes. 19% remain unsure.

New York City voters overwhelmingly support expanding involuntary commitment policies for individuals suffering from severe mental illness. 59% believe that the city should make it easier to commit people experiencing psychiatric crises, while just 13% think it should be harder. 14% favor keeping the current policy unchanged (Figure 5).

Figure 5

Some lawmakers in New York City have proposed loosening the current standard for involuntary mental health commitments. Currently, individuals can only be committed if they are deemed a danger to themselves or others. A proposed change would allow for involuntary commitment if an individual displays an inability to meet basic living needs. When asked about this proposal, 61% of voters endorse it, compared with 27% opposed. Support is bipartisan, with 62% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans in favor.

Voters also strongly back increasing mental health infrastructure. 88% support expanding state funding to build more inpatient psychiatric treatment facilities, with just 6% opposed. When asked to choose between policy priorities, 51% say building more inpatient facilities should be the top focus, while 41% prefer increasing access to outpatient and community-based mental health services.

Concerns about behavioral issues extend to schools as well. 46% of voters are “extremely” or “very” concerned about children and teens using phones in schools, and an additional 31% are “somewhat concerned.” By a wide 71% to 29% margin, voters believe schools should enact policies to limit students’ access to phones, rather than leaving the decision to parents and students. Black New Yorkers were less supportive (57%) of restrictions than Hispanic (79%), white (76%) and Asian (70%) New Yorkers.

A plurality of New York City voters (47%) support full marijuana legalization, while 24% believe it should be legal only for medicinal use. 9% support allowing individuals to grow and possess marijuana but oppose retail sales, and another 9% think it should be fully illegal. 11% remain unsure.

But voters remain unimpressed with the city’s handling of legalization. 33% say the city has done an “okay” job, while 30% rate its performance as “poor.” Only 15% call it “good,” and just 9% say “excellent.”

While New Yorkers broadly support private marijuana use—75% say it should be legal in an individual’s home and 69% support legal retail sales—they are far less supportive of public use. There is overwhelming agreement that marijuana use should be illegal before (6%) or while (4%) operating a vehicle, on public buses (5%), within 30 yards of a school (7%), and in restaurants (9%).

Public parks are a somewhat grayer area, with 34% saying it should be legal to smoke marijuana there and 55% saying it should not (Figure 6).

Figure 6

Black New Yorkers stand out in terms of support for allowing marijuana use in  public spaces, including parks (56% legal), buses (14%), near a school (12%), and in restaurants (23%).

Support for legal marijuana in New York City aligns closely with national trends, according to Manhattan Institute polling from December 2024, though New Yorkers are somewhat more supportive of private use in the home and slightly less supportive of public consumption, particularly near schools. Greater exposure to legalization may have heightened awareness of the downsides of marijuana usage in shared spaces.

Photo: Chris6d, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons