The MAGA Mandate: Post-Election Survey Analysis of the 2024 Electorate

Between December 4th and 7th of 2024, the Manhattan Institute polled a representative sample of 2,304 voters in last month’s presidential election from across the U.S. on their feelings about the election outcome, public officials, President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda, and various policy issues.

The survey was conducted based on a sample drawn from a national voter file, then weighted to match the 2024 electorate on gender, age, college education, race, and 2024 vote. Responses were collected using mixed methods, including a mix of SMS-to-web and online outreach. The poll’s margin of error is +/–2.9%.

The results reveal a striking alignment between President Trump’s policy priorities and the concerns of the American electorate. By focusing his campaign on immigration, crime, and the economy—issues where voters overwhelmingly sided with him—and deemphasizing abortion (one of the few policy areas where public sentiment leans toward Democrats) while instead highlighting newer cultural debates over race and gender, Trump secured a decisive victory in the 2024 presidential election.

While voters overall, including independents, attribute Harris's defeat to a lackluster campaign message, persistent inflation, and her association with the Biden administration, Democrats overwhelmingly ascribe her loss to bias against her identity as a black woman. Notably, Democratic voters remain open to Harris continuing as a leading figure and presidential candidate in the party’s future.

President Trump enters his second term with the highest approval ratings of his political life. His cabinet selections have been met with widespread approval, and his Agenda 47 manifesto draws broad, bipartisan support. Perhaps unexpectedly, even a majority of Democratic voters endorse most of his policy proposals, especially when it comes to economics, inflation, and public safety. Meanwhile, President Biden’s favorability has plummeted, with voters strongly opposing his controversial decision to pardon his son, Hunter Biden.

On immigration, Trump has tapped into a nuanced consensus: voters favor strong border enforcement, including mass deportation of illegal immigrants, but they also support expanding pathways for high-skilled legal immigration. However, public opinion on immigration has historically been thermostatic, shifting in response to perceived government overreach or widely publicized enforcement actions. While Trump’s position aligns with the majority view for now, this consensus could become fragile as deportations are carried out and controversial images or narratives emerge in the public sphere. Maintaining public confidence on this issue will require careful messaging and a balanced approach.

Similarly, Trump’s pivot to the mainstream consensus on issues like Social Security and abortion has allowed him to present a stark contrast to what many perceive as Democratic extremism on issues such as transgenderism, race essentialism, immigration, and crime.

Despite media narratives dismissing Trump’s expansive mandate, the data paint a more complex picture. Voters broadly support Trump’s agenda and express a desire for bipartisan cooperation on key issues. Far from endorsing partisan gridlock, they call for Democrats to engage with Trump’s platform on its merits.

These findings reveal a public increasingly aligned with Trump’s vision for governance and signal a profound shift in the political landscape—one that places Democrats at a crossroads as they reckon with the electorate’s rejection of their progressive priorities.

Full Results Available: Toplines, Crosstabs

The 2024 presidential election revealed a clear preference among voters for Donald Trump’s policy agenda over Kamala Harris’s focus on character. Trump’s ability to align himself with voters on key issues such as the economy, immigration, public safety, and various cultural flashpoints proved decisive, while Harris struggled to connect with voters on the issues that mattered most.

Voters who supported Trump did so overwhelmingly because of his policies. Among Trump voters, 87% said they believed his policies were best for them and their families, compared to just 11% who cited his character as their primary motivation. By contrast, Harris’s coalition was far more fractured. While 60% of her voters pointed to her policies, a significant share—37%—cited her character, reflecting a campaign that failed to center the issues driving voter concerns.

The distinction becomes even sharper when examining the motivations of swing voters. Among independents who backed Trump, 71% said their vote was primarily for him, rather than against Harris. Harris, however, could not generate the same positive support: 57% of independents and 77% of Republicans who voted for her said their vote was mainly against Trump.

Trump enters his second term with positive approval ratings (Figure 1), buoyed by his post-election momentum. 50% of voters approve of his handling of his job as president-elect, compared to 45% who disapprove—a stark contrast to Joe Biden’s –15 net approval rating. Independents are near evenly split on favorability of Trump as president-elect, while Biden suffers –16 net disapproval with this critical group. Trump’s cabinet picks, while largely unknown to voters, have been met with neutral-to-positive reactions, leaving him room to further consolidate approval as his administration takes shape.

Figure 1: Favorability of Political Figures

Conversely, Harris’s position within her own party reflects notable divisions and underscores a broader disconnect between Democratic voters and the rest of the country. While 64% of independents and a majority of voters overall believe the Democratic Party needs new leadership, Democrats remain narrowly split on Harris’s future: 47% say she should run for president again, while 34% say she should not. This divide suggests that Democrats risk ignoring the lessons of 2024 by continuing to embrace unpopular figures and policies that alienate the broader electorate, particularly the swing voters who were decisive in Trump’s victory.

On the issues, Republicans hold significant trust advantages across nearly every policy area. As shown in Figure 2, voters say the GOP’s view is closer to their own (relative to the Democratic view) on handling border security (+15), the Israel-Hamas war (+14), immigration (+13), China (+11), crime (+9), and the economy (+8). Republicans have also made gains in traditionally Democratic areas like transgender issues (+8), the Russia-Ukraine war (+5), and guns (+5). Democrats retain narrow leads only on abortion (–8 Republican trust) and education (–2).

Figure 2: Which Party is Closer to Your View?

These findings underscore a political environment where Trump’s issue-based appeal has solidified Republican advantages, particularly on concerns central to working- and middle-class voters. Harris’s focus on character and identity politics fell short in an election where voters prioritized economic stability, public safety, and immigration control.

Further complicating matters for Democrats is the Biden administration’s handling of Hunter Biden’s pardon, which has a net approval of –21 (Figure 3). 21% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and 91% of Republicans disapprove of the decision. A majority of voters believe the pardon “contradicts Biden’s pledge not to use the presidency for personal benefit,” reinforcing perceptions of political favoritism. The pardon has only amplified the sense among voters that the Democratic Party is out of touch with their priorities.

Figure 3: Hunter Biden Pardon

When asked who they would support if the 2028 presidential primary were to occur today, voters offer an early glimpse into the future of both parties. Kamala Harris leads a crowded Democratic field at 26%, followed by Michelle Obama at 14%, and Pete Buttigieg at 12%. Gavin Newsom (7%), Josh Shapiro (4%), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (7%) lag further behind, while 11% remain undecided—reflecting a party still grappling with its post-2024 identity.

On the Republican side, JD Vance commands a decisive lead at 40%, with Ron DeSantis (10%) and Donald Trump Jr. (16%) trailing far behind. The results highlight a GOP increasingly sure of who it is, what it stands for, and where it’s going, while Democrats remain divided over their future leadership and priorities.

On most issues, voters saw Trump as closer than Kamala Harris to their own views (Figure 4). Trump held an advantage on economic issues (50% to 46%), immigration (54% to 40%), foreign policy (51% to 42%), and even cultural issues like race (48% to 45%). Harris led only on “social issues like abortion,” where she edged Trump 49% to 45%.

Figure 4: Which Candidate is Closer to Your View?

This dynamic reflected voters’ perception of the candidates’ priorities. A majority believed that Trump was more focused on economic issues (65%) than on social matters (11%), underscoring his alignment with concerns about affordability, economic growth, and public safety. Harris, by contrast, was seen as far more focused on social issues (52%) than economic ones (22%), which left her unable to connect with large swaths of the electorate.

At the same time, voters viewed the Trump campaign as more ideologically extreme: 48% said Trump ran a campaign that was “more ideologically extreme and less moderate” on the issues, compared to just 37% who said the same of Harris. Yet this perception did not diminish his appeal: voters preferred his approach because it offered a sharp break from progressive ideas that have become dominant in elite institutions like the media, academia, and even corporations.

Trump’s campaign message proved more effective at addressing voter concerns. By a margin of 53% to 42%, voters said Trump was focused on “the issues that worry everyday Americans,” a sentiment that resonated strongly with independents, who favored Trump’s focus by nearly 10 points (48% to 39%).

This preference for substance over style shaped voter priorities throughout the campaign. A majority (52% to 42%) said policy positions were more important to their decision than values and character, a view even more pronounced among independents (54% to 38%).

Ultimately, Trump’s emphasis on economic stability, immigration enforcement, and foreign policy resonated broadly, while Harris’s focus on social issues—on which voters were largely not aligned with her—failed to deliver. The data show that, even as voters perceived Trump as extreme, they embraced his campaign as a necessary disruption, rejecting the cultural and ideological consensus promoted by Democratic elites and seeking a course correction on the most important issues.

Trump’s Agenda 47—a platform of 20 key policy proposals—tested remarkably well with voters, reflecting a striking alignment between Trump’s priorities and the concerns of the American public. Every proposal garnered net positive support, with independents backing each element of the agenda by significant margins.

At the top of Trump’s platform in terms of popularity are proposals that address voters’ core concerns about economic stability and quality of life: protecting Social Security (+77 net support), reducing inflation (+73), rebuilding American cities (+69), maintaining the dollar as the global reserve currency (+67), and cutting taxes for workers (+62). Even on traditionally partisan issues, Trump’s promises resonate broadly, including defending constitutional freedoms—such as free speech, freedom of religion, and the right to bear arms (+59)—combating migrant crime and crushing drug cartels (+56), ending outsourcing and revitalizing American manufacturing (+54), and achieving energy dominance (+52) (Figure 5).

Even Trump’s more polarizing proposals still maintain net-positive approval overall, including mass deportations (+13), cutting funding for Critical Race Theory (CRT) and gender ideology in schools (+18), and canceling the electric vehicle mandate (+24), underscoring the breadth of support for Trump’s agenda.

Figure 5: Trump Campaign Promises

Notably, some parts of Trump’s agenda find significant support among Democrats. Proposals such as protecting Social Security and Medicare (+61), rebuilding American cities (+43), reducing inflation (+46), and tax cuts for workers (+31) enjoy substantial bipartisan appeal. Even cultural and governance-related priorities—such as defending constitutional freedoms (+19), tackling migrant crime (+15), and strengthening the military (+4)—garner meaningful Democratic support.

However, resistance remains concentrated on Trump’s most polarizing proposals. Policies like mass deportations (–65), cutting funding for schools that teach CRT (–56), and cancelling the EV mandate (–43) draw strong Democratic opposition, while independents remain more divided, signaling opportunities for Trump to capitalize on bipartisan agreement for his broader policy framework.

Importantly, voters reject the notion of blanket opposition to Trump’s presidency. 66% of voters—and 42% of Democratic voters—believe that Democrats should work with Trump and Republicans to achieve bipartisan compromises. This preference for collaboration highlights discontent with the “resistance” strategy that defined Trump’s first term. Nearly half of voters (47%) believe the prior resistance contributed to the rise of extreme ideas on race and immigration, compared to 36% who argue it successfully protected the Affordable Care Act and democracy. Among independents, support for resistance is even weaker, at only 33%.

The findings underscore a clear opportunity for Trump to implement his Agenda 47. Voters broadly support his core proposals, and their desire for bipartisan cooperation suggests a path forward for advancing his agenda while avoiding unnecessarily polarizing tactics.

Voters’ explanations for Kamala Harris’s decisive loss reveal a striking disconnect between Democrats’ interpretation of the election results and the broader electorate’s concerns—one that could threaten the party’s ability to recover and rebuild.

When asked why Harris lost, voters pointed to failures in messaging and leadership, as well as economic mismanagement (Figure 6). The most commonly cited reasons were that her campaign did not have a message that resonated with Americans (39%), that she was too closely tied to Joe Biden (38%), and that inflation was too high (32%). Among independents—who played a decisive role in Trump’s victory—the pattern was nearly identical: 44% said Harris lacked a compelling message, 39% blamed her association with Biden, and 34% cited inflation.

Democrats, however, offered a sharply different diagnosis. The top reason they cited for Harris’s defeat—selected by a 59% majority—was that the U.S. is not ready for a black woman president, reflecting the party’s focus on identity rather than substance. By contrast, just 42% of Democrats pointed to her ties to Biden, and only 24% acknowledged inflation, an issue that consistently ranked among voters’ top concerns throughout the campaign. Notably, none of the top three explanations offered by Democrats place responsibility on Harris or her campaign, instead assigning blame to voters, Biden, and economic conditions—in that order.

Figure 6: Why Harris Lost

This divide underscores a critical challenge for the Democratic Party. While voters overall—and especially independents—saw Harris’s loss as a failure to connect on issues that matter to everyday Americans, Democrats appear wedded to a narrative that blames structural bias. By dismissing voters’ concerns about messaging, leadership, and the economy, Democrats risk misreading the lessons of 2024 and doubling down on the very missteps that led to their defeat. At a time when the party desperately needs to rebuild trust and rethink its priorities, this disconnect raises serious questions about its ability to craft a platform that resonates beyond its base.

Voters remain deeply skeptical of the federal government’s role in the economy, with a majority blaming excessive government spending during the coronavirus pandemic for driving inflation. Nearly half of voters (47%) say that the government spent too much, causing prices to surge, while only 12% believe it should have spent more.

This skepticism extends to fiscal policy more broadly. A decisive 56% of voters support cutting government spending to reduce taxes, compared to just 26% who favor higher spending for expanded services. Similarly, 64% prioritize deficit reduction even if it means cutting spending, while only 16% prefer running deficits to maintain current spending levels.

Voters also reject calls for tax increases. Amid rising costs and economic uncertainty, there is broad agreement that no one—regardless of income—should face higher taxes.

At the same time, there is strong support for a pro-business approach to economic governance. A commanding majority (63%) believe that “what is good for businesses is good for workers,” while just 17% subscribe to the view that helping businesses comes at the expense of workers. In short, voters believe that the way to achieve prosperity is through policies that support businesses, rather than hinder them.

Finally, a plurality of voters (47%) say that the government does too many things, rather than arguing it should do more (33%), reflecting enduring concerns about overreach and the unintended consequences of federal intervention. These results signal a clear preference for policies that emphasize economic restraint, fiscal responsibility, and a business-friendly environment as pathways to restoring growth and stability.

A majority of voters believe the criminal justice system is failing to address rising crime. 53% say the system is “not tough enough” on crime, compared to just 22% who believe it strikes the right balance and 12% who say that it is “too tough.” Notably, this holds across partisan and demographic divides: 35% of Democrats agree the system is not tough enough, as do 39% of black voters—a group often thought to be skeptical of harsher enforcement measures.

When asked about policy priorities, voters overwhelmingly favor reducing crime over reducing incarceration. 64% say the top focus should be reducing crime, while just 24% prioritize addressing “mass incarceration.” This emphasis on public safety resonates even among typically more progressive groups: 48% of Democrats and a majority of black voters (56%) say that reducing crime should take precedence, compared to 39% and 28%, respectively, who emphasize reducing incarceration rates.

These results highlight a growing disconnect between elite narratives and voter priorities. While public discourse often centers on criminal justice reform and decarceration, the electorate’s message is clear: voters, including key Democratic constituencies, are calling for a renewed focus on public safety and tougher enforcement to combat rising crime.

On immigration, Trump’s position reflects a nuanced consensus that blends strong enforcement with support for legal pathways. Nearly half of voters (48%) favor deporting “all or most” migrants who entered the country illegally, while 26% support a path to citizenship and 16% prefer some form of work authorization. However, Latino voters, while more supportive of immigration overall, remain divided: 35% back deportation, 31% favor citizenship, and 25% support work authorization.

At the same time, voters draw a clear distinction between illegal immigration and high-skilled legal immigration. A strong majority believe that high-skilled immigration levels should either be maintained (40%) or increased (30%), with only 10% favoring reductions. Even among Republicans, just 12% support decreasing high-skilled immigration. This presents an opportunity for Trump to focus narrowly on illegal immigration enforcement while affirming legal pathways—a position that aligns with growing voter sentiment favoring targeted, skills-based immigration policies.

When asked about the top focus for immigration policy, 55% of voters emphasize “better border security and strong enforcement of our immigration laws,” while 38% favor creating more pathways for legal immigration. Latino voters lean more heavily toward expanding legal pathways (51%) but still exhibit significant support for stronger enforcement (40%).

Voters also clearly have security concerns related to immigration. A majority (55% to 21%) endorse requiring visa applicants to disclose their views on Hamas and ISIS, signaling widespread alignment between public opinion and Trump’s emphasis on national security.

However, public opinion on immigration has historically been thermostatic, shifting in response to perceived government overreach or widely publicized enforcement actions. While Trump’s approach currently aligns with voter sentiment, the consensus could prove fragile if mass deportations or high-profile enforcement actions generate controversial imagery or narratives. Maintaining public confidence will require careful messaging and a balanced approach that differentiates illegal immigration enforcement from support for high-skilled legal immigration—a distinction that voters have clearly embraced.

Voter sentiment on abortion shows a preference for choice over restrictive policies. Nearly half of voters (48%) identify as pro-choice, either strongly (37%) or somewhat (11%). Conversely, 32% identify as pro-life (23% strongly and 9% somewhat). An additional 16% describe themselves as “somewhere in between,” reflecting a nuanced landscape of opinion on the issue.

On the whole, voters reject harsh limits on abortion. A 38% plurality believes women should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice. Another 18% support abortion in “some but not all” cases, while 31% favor restricting abortion to cases of rape, incest, or when the mother’s life is in danger. Only 7% of voters endorse a complete ban, highlighting the unpopularity of extreme restrictions.

Views on gestational limits further illustrate voters’ moderation. 21% say abortion should always be legal, while 15% believe it should never be allowed. A significant share favors restrictions at various points in pregnancy, including 19% support for a 12-week cutoff, 16% for a 24-week limit, and 15% for a 6-week limit. However, the public remains ambivalent on when abortion access should end, with 14% saying they are uncertain.

On contraception, there is overwhelming consensus. 80% of voters support federal protections guaranteeing access to contraception, with net support standing at +69. This includes a strong bipartisan consensus, with 89% of Democrats, 78% of independents, and 72% of Republicans in favor. Only 11% oppose such protections.

A clear majority of voters express a strong preference for a colorblind society where everyone is treated equally regardless of race. 65% favor this approach, compared with 23% who prefer race-conscious policies designed to benefit marginalized groups. This sentiment transcends partisan and racial lines: a majority of Democrats (52%), nearly half of black voters (49%), and a clear majority of Latino voters (60%) support a colorblind America. By contrast, 37% of Democrats, 33% of black voters, and 26% of Latinos favor a race-conscious framework.

The belief in individual agency is similarly widespread. 79% of voters believe that success or failure in life is determined by personal choices, rather than by external forces like race and gender (11%). While Democrats are slightly more sympathetic to structural explanations (20%), strong majorities of black voters (60%) and Latino voters (81%) align with the broader public in emphasizing individual responsibility.

On the question of systemic oppression, the electorate is divided. A majority (58%) reject the notion that any group is permanently oppressed in the United States. However, 53% of Democrats and a narrow majority of black voters (52%) believe that black and Latino Americans are permanently held back by white supremacy. Latinos, meanwhile, lean against this sentiment, with a plurality (40%) rejecting the view that any group is permanently oppressed.

In the education context, voters reject the teaching of narratives that cast the U.S. as irredeemably racist (Figure 7). 73% say that children should be taught that the U.S. is founded on the principle that "all men are created equal" while addressing both the good and bad parts of the nation’s history. Only 17%—including 32% of Democrats—believe schools should teach that the U.S. is a fundamentally racist nation built on white supremacy. Even among minority voters, most black (49%) and Latino (60%) voters support the balanced approach, while just 33% and 26%, respectively, favor teaching the U.S. as fundamentally racist.

Figure 7: Education

The public remains deeply skeptical of race-based policies in higher education and government. Half of voters (50%) oppose mandatory diversity training programs at universities, with opposition rising to 55% among independents. While a narrow majority of black voters (51%) support making the trainings mandatory, Latinos are less supportive, with a plurality (43% opposed, 39% in favor) rejecting such requirements.

Broader racial preferences fare even worse. 62% oppose directing additional government funding to universities with large minority populations, including 45% of Democrats, compared with only 21% in support. Latinos overwhelmingly reject this approach (57% opposed, 22% in support), while black voters remain split evenly (37% in favor, 37% opposed).

When presented with two competing approaches to improving opportunity for black Americans, voters overwhelmingly favored a universal, growth-oriented strategy over targeted, race-conscious proposals. 64% preferred a vision focused on rapid economic growth, lower inflation, reduced government regulation, and lower taxes—policies that aim to lift everyone up together. By contrast, only 16% supported the agenda that formed Kamala Harris’s campaign pitch to black voters—one centered on government loans, tax credits for black-owned businesses, marijuana legalization, and cryptocurrency regulation. Notably, black voters also preferred the opportunity-focused approach over Harris’s race-conscious proposals by a decisive margin of 55% to 19%, helping to explain why Trump made such strong inroads with black voters in 2024. The results highlight voters’ broad skepticism toward race-specific policies and their preference for economic solutions that address the needs of all Americans.

Voters express a clear preference for merit-based policies over race-conscious initiatives in hiring, contracting, and government programs. 69% believe that hiring and contracting decisions should be based strictly on merit, regardless of race, including a 55% majority of Democrats. By contrast, only 18% believe race should play a role in such decisions, with even black voters (31%) and Latino voters (19%) showing limited support for race-based considerations. Among Latinos, an overwhelming 66% oppose taking race into account, as do 46% of black voters.

Voters also reject racial favoritism in government programs. Just 19% think it is fair to prioritize black and Hispanic businesses for government contracts, while 60% believe such policies are unfair. This holds across racial and partisan lines: a plurality of black voters (39% to 32%), a majority of Latinos (50% to 21%), and 57% of independents oppose racial favoritism. Similarly, preferences for women-owned businesses are viewed skeptically: 57% of voters say such policies are unfair, versus only 21% in favor.

Voters are broadly aligned on the principle of race neutrality in government policy. 60% say that the best way to stop racial discrimination is to “stop discriminating on the basis of race,” while just 25% support policies aimed at uplifting marginalized groups specifically. This preference for colorblindness underscores widespread skepticism toward race-based interventions, even among constituencies they are intended to benefit.

Public opinion on marijuana reflects a nuanced balance between support for legalization and concern over its broader societal impact (Figure 8). Majorities favor legalizing both the purchase (61%) and possession (62%) of recreational marijuana. However, voters are far more skeptical about commercial sales: support drops to 43%, with 39% opposed.

Voters overwhelmingly back private use, with 69% support for allowing individuals to smoke marijuana in their own homes. Yet public consumption remains widely unpopular. Majorities favor bans on smoking marijuana in public parks (56% to 27%), on buses or trains (82% to 9%), in bars and restaurants (74% to 15%), within 30 yards of a school (82% to 9%), or while driving a vehicle (82% to 9%).

Figure 8: Marijuana

On overall legalization, 46% of voters support full recreational legalization, while 19% support only medicinal use. A smaller share (8%) would allow possession but not sales, and 12% oppose legalization altogether. Independents largely mirror overall sentiment, with 50% backing legalization under all circumstances.

Top voter concerns over marijuana legalization include increased car crashes (25% extremely worried, 20% very worried) and marijuana use among children (29% extremely worried, 16% very worried).

A majority of voters (52%) believe that online sports betting should be legal, arguing that individuals have the right to place bets for entertainment without government interference, even if some make poor decisions. Opposition, however, remains substantial, with 32% expressing concern about the societal harms of gambling, such as its negative impact on families, increased bankruptcies, and a link to domestic violence. Partisan differences are relatively modest, with Republicans (54%) and independents (53%) slightly more supportive of legalization than Democrats (49%). Notably, 17% remain unsure, indicating room for further debate on the issue.

Voters favor a peace through strength approach to U.S. foreign policy, with 46% supporting an active role in countering threats and promoting national interests through a strong and lethal military. By contrast, 40% prefer a diplomacy-first strategy, advocating for the avoidance of military intervention unless the U.S. is directly threatened. Support for peace through strength is strongest among Republicans (66%) and a plurality of independents (43%), while Democrats overwhelmingly favor a diplomacy-first approach (60%). These results reflect a persistent divide between those emphasizing assertive global leadership and those prioritizing restraint.

Voters broadly support policies that are based on individuals’ biological sex rather than their perceived gender identity. 65% percent of voters, including 66% of independents, believe that athletes who identify as transgender should play on sports teams that reflect their sex at birth. Democrats are narrowly divided, with 38% favoring policies based on sex at birth and 37% supporting participation with teams based on an individual’s preferred gender identity.

When it comes to incarceration, a majority (57%) believe that transgender individuals convicted of crimes should be housed in prisons corresponding to their sex at birth, compared to 24% who prefer housing based on stated gender identity. Independents favor the biological sex-based approach by a 58% to 19% margin.

Voters also favor parental rights in schools. 60% believe that schools should be required to inform parents if their child requests to use a different name or pronouns, including 60% of independents and 78% of Republicans. Democratic voters are more split, with 42% supporting mandatory parental notification and 36% opposed.

On medical interventions for children, public opinion remains strongly opposed (Figure 9). 64% percent of voters reject allowing minors to access gender-transition treatments before age 18, a position held by 67% of independents and 87% of Republicans. While Democrats are more divided, a plurality (39%) oppose such treatments for minors, 37% support them, and 24% remain undecided. Among independents, 19% are undecided, compared to just 7% of Republicans.

Figure 9

Democrats consistently exhibit higher rates of uncertainty on transgender issues compared to Republicans and independents. A quarter of Democrats say they “don’t know” whether transgender athletes should play on teams aligned with their sex at birth or gender identity, compared to 6% of Republicans and 21% of independents. Similarly, 29% of Democrats are unsure about transgender prison placements (24% of independents, 9% of Republicans), and 24% are undecided on minors accessing gender-transition treatments (19% of independents, 7% of Republicans). This elevated indecision stands out and may reflect a hesitation among Democratic voters to express their true views on transgender topics to pollsters.

These results reflect a clear public preference for policies rooted in biological distinctions, age restrictions, and parental involvement. Across key demographics, including independents, voters reject progressive approaches to gender identity that they see as out of step with societal norms.

Urban voters, long considered a stronghold of Democratic support, are showing signs of movement toward Republican priorities on issues of public safety, economic stability, and quality of life. While Kamala Harris maintained a lead on overall trust among urban voters, that lead was notably weakest on issues such as immigration (48% Harris, 43% Trump)—a remarkable closing of the gap in a traditionally liberal demographic.

Donald Trump’s gains in U.S. cities were among his most striking electoral shifts. 30% of urban voters recalled voting for Trump in 2020, but in 2024, Trump captured 38% of the urban vote, reflecting his ability to connect on core issues driving urban frustration: crime, affordability, and economic decline.

This shift aligns with strong urban support for key components of Trump’s Agenda 47. Of the 20 policies tested, only one—mass deportation—had net-negative support among urban voters. Even culturally polarizing proposals such as canceling the electric vehicle mandate (+8 net support) and cutting funding for critical race theory in schools (+3 net support) maintained narrow support among urbanites. By contrast, Trump’s bread-and-butter economic and safety proposals performed exceptionally well:

• Protecting Social Security and Medicare (+73 net support)
• Reducing inflation (+66)
• Rebuilding cities to make them safe and clean (+62)
• Keeping the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency (+62)
• Stopping crime and prosecuting drug cartels (+44)

Urban voters’ priorities on crime and public safety reinforce this shift. 45% percent say the criminal justice system is “not tough enough” on crime—far outweighing the 14% who believe it is “too tough.” A strong majority (62%) prioritize reducing crime over reducing mass incarceration (24%), including majorities of black and Latino urban voters.

Economic issues reveal a similar dynamic. Urban voters express skepticism about deficit spending, with 51% prioritizing deficit reduction over maintaining current spending levels. A plurality (36%) believe that spending cuts—not tax increases—are the best path to achieving this goal.

These results highlight a critical inflection point in American cities. Urban frustration with rising crime, economic instability, and quality-of-life erosion—exacerbated by years of progressive governance—has created fertile ground for conservative solutions that emphasize safety, affordability, and economic growth. While Democrats still hold an advantage among urban voters, that edge is narrowing as Republicans present a compelling alternative rooted in addressing the challenges that matter most to urban communities.

Photo: adamkaz / E+ via Getty Images