New Poll Finds Andrew Cuomo Leading 2025 NYC Mayoral Race; Crime Tops Voter Concerns

Manhattan Institute releases key findings on voter sentiment and election dynamics

NEW YORK, NY – The Manhattan Institute today released new polling data on the 2025 New York City mayoral race, shedding light on voter preferences, candidate favorability, and the major issues shaping the election. The survey, conducted between January 24 and January 30, 2025, among 618 registered voters, reveals that Andrew Cuomo holds a strong early lead while public dissatisfaction with the city's direction remains high.

Among other findings, the poll indicates that Cuomo secures 30% of first-choice votes in the Democratic primary and wins a ranked-choice voting simulation comfortably. Additionally, 66% of voters believe the city is on the wrong track, reflecting widespread concerns about governance and policy direction.

Voter Priorities: Crime and Cost of Living Take Center Stage: When asked to identify the most pressing issues facing New York City (voters could select up to two), crime and public safety emerged as the dominant concern for 49% of respondents. This was followed by housing costs (29%), jobs and the economy (28%), and migrants and immigration (22%). Crime and immigration concerns are particularly pronounced among Republicans, with 65% and 61% citing these issues, respectively. However, crime remains the top concern even among Democrats (47%), underscoring its cross-partisan salience.

Candidate Favorability and Performance: The poll also tested voter sentiment toward key political figures and head-to-head election matchups.

• Mayor Eric Adams faces major challenges, with a -46% net favorability rating and a -29% net job approval rating. His approval is strongest in Queens (+12) but deeply negative in Brooklyn (-53) and the Bronx (-44).
• Former Governor Andrew Cuomo not only leads in the Democratic primary but also performs strongly in general election matchups, often securing majorities against potential challengers. He leads 50% to 28% in a head-to-head race against Adams. He defeats Curtis Sliwa (59% to 25%) and Chris Christie (52% to 30%). And against Joe Borelli, Cuomo holds a 55% to 19% advantage, with 26% undecided.

Election Process and Structural Insights: The poll also explored voter attitudes toward electoral reforms and party dynamics.

• 44% of voters believe that NYC elections are effectively decided in Democratic primaries, reducing the perceived importance of general elections.
• 62% prefer open primaries, while only 26% favor closed primaries.
• Support for ranked-choice voting remains positive but modest, with 52% of voters in favor.

“Our polling shows that New Yorkers remain deeply frustrated with the direction of the city and are prioritizing crime, housing, and economic issues in this election,” said Jesse Arm, executive director of external affairs and chief of staff at the Manhattan Institute. “Andrew Cuomo’s strong position in the race underscores his broad appeal, but with months to go before the election, voter preferences could shift.”

Poll Methodology: The survey was conducted via SMS-to-web and online outreach and was weighted to reflect the likely 2025 mayoral electorate in terms of gender, age, education, race, and vote history. The poll has a margin of error of ±3.94%.

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