Rising Prison Population Has Nothing To Do With Economic Recovery
A recent article by Robin Harding in the Financial Times made the dubious claim that “the millions sent to prison in the U.S., and their subsequent struggle to find work, are a crucial reason for falling labour market participation in [America].”
Harding’s claim fails to stand up to even the most basic statistical scrutiny.
The U.S. labor force participation rate in December 2007 was 66 percent. If that rate had held steady through population growth, 6 million additional workers would have been in the labor force in December 2012. Over that same time frame, 28,000 more prisoners were added to state and federal U.S. prisons. The 28,000 additional prisoners make up less than half a percent of the 6 million workers potentially missing from the labor force. Harding’s suggestion that economic recovery has been slowed by growing imprisonment has little evidence to support it.
Long-term trends in the labor force participation rate also contradict Harding’s claims. Harding cites a nine percentage point drop in the labor force participation rate of men age 25-54 since 1964. However, the male labor force participation rate has been falling since 1949, and the labor force participation rate for males 25-54 has been falling since data became available in January 1955.
Female labor force participation also provides evidence that today’s labor force struggles are the result of economic, not criminal, issues. The female labor force participation rate grew steadily from 1950 to the late 1990s, as many women joined the workforce for the first time. Since 2000, the trend has stopped and reversed itself. This reversal could not be caused by imprisonment. While 15,500 more American women were imprisoned in 2012 than in 2000, 9 million additional women would have participated in the labor force if the female participation rate had held steady at its 2000 level. This means increased female imprisonment rates could account for less than two tenths of a percent of the decline.
It may be fair to claim that the United States imprisons too many people or for too long. Imprisonment keeps workers out of the labor force and we are not doing enough to teach prisoners new skills during their period of incarceration. With the increasing prevalence of online courses, this lack of training could potentially be remedied. The U.S. prison population rate is second in the world only to the tiny island nation of Seychelles, which beats the United States by just 2 imprisonments per 100,000 people. The U.S. prison population is 500,000 greater than China, even though China has four times as many people.
Regardless of whether or not the United States imprisons too many of its citizens, it is disingenuous to say increasing incarceration rates are harming the economic recovery. Government economic policies that create disincentives to seeking employment and hiring workers are responsible for current labor market conditions. Pointing to other pseudo factors such as imprisonment rates only distracts policy makers from real issues.
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