New Manhattan Institute Issue Brief: Classrooms Without Kids

New York City is overpaying for schools that students are leaving 

NEW YORK, NY – What good is a school building without any students in it? Declining public-school enrollment is creating challenges for school districts, and it is projected to only get worse. In a new Manhattan Institute issue brief, fellow Danyela Souza Egorov examines the data on school enrollment in New York City and other major school districts.  
 
Egorov highlights that K-12 public education will see a 6% decline in students by 2030 due to declining birth rates and parents increasingly choosing non-public schools such as charters and homeschooling. Nine of the ten largest U.S. school districts have lost enrollment since the pandemic, with New York City projected to fall from 845,500 students today to approximately 750,000 by 2030. 
 
In New York City, 112 public schools were projected to enroll fewer than 150 students in 2025–26, which, Egorov emphasizes, is too small to justify the required staffing under union contracts. Next year there are 134 schools projected to have fewer than 150 students. Per-pupil spending at these schools averages $41,442, nearly double the citywide average of $23,908. The city's “hold-harmless” policy, which shields shrinking schools from enrollment-based budget cuts, has cost $388 million this school year alone. 
 
Egorov makes the following recommendations:

• Merge or close schools with fewer than 150 students, fewer than five students proficient in math or ELA, or steep recent enrollment declines—bringing per-pupil spending in line with the district average and saving at least $108 million per year, with additional savings from reduced building and maintenance costs.
• End the hold-harmless funding policy so that school budgets adjust downward with enrollment, eliminating wide per-pupil spending disparities between schools and saving an estimated $250–$400 million annually. 

Click here to read the full issue brief.