2023 proved recession doomsayers wrong. Last year, the US economy grew 3.1%. Strong consumer spending, propped up by a strong labor market, helped drive growth during a year where economists initially expected a contraction.
As wage growth outpaced price increases, consumer confidence increased. Subsequently, so did spending: largely on healthcare, dining-out, and cars. 2023’s consumer-driven growth was further buttressed by government spending and international trade, as the chart below reflects.
![](https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/wp-content/uploads/econ-january-29.png)
While consumers seized the spotlight in 2023, it remains uncertain if their enthusiastic spending will extend into 2024. Consumers substituted saving for spending: the personal saving rate fell notably in 2023, below a decade-steady level of around 5%. Consumers have also been spending money they don’t have. Credit card spending, balance pay-off time, and delinquency rates all increased in 2023. Economists expect consumer spending to taper while also predicting a growth slowdown to 1% this year.
Source: Gabriel T. Rubin, The Wall Street Journal
Reade Ben is a policy analyst at the Manhattan Institute.
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