Yes, a Recession Is Still a Possibility
Predictions of a “soft landing” seem both premature and hard to square with some of the data.
Call me superstitious or contrarian — or maybe just a procrastinator — but I only started worrying about a recession last week. That was when one prominent commentator stated flatly that “there will be no recession in the next six months,” while the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago declared that the US was on a “golden path” to immaculate disinflation.
I can’t be the only person who thinks this feels like tempting fate, or at least another round of “Why Didn’t Economists See This Recession Coming?” headlines. More than that, however, these predictions seem both premature and hard to square with some of the data.
Allison Schrager is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a contributing editor of City Journal.
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