Polling a People: Survey Analysis of the Political and Policy Preferences of 2024’s Jewish Electorate

Between October 5th and 9th of 2024, the Manhattan Institute polled a representative sample of 658 Jewish registered voters across the U.S. on their feelings about the 2024 presidential election, issues impacting American Jewry, and other public policy matters.

The survey was conducted based on a sample drawn from a national voter file and online panels, then weighted to match the population of likely Jewish voters on gender, age, and college education. Responses were collected using mixed methods, including a mix of SMS-to-web and online outreach. The poll’s margin of error is +/– 3.8%.

Although Jewish voters remain largely aligned with the Democratic Party, there are growing cracks in that support. A new Manhattan Institute poll finds that Vice President Kamala Harris is on track to perform worse in this year’s election than any Democratic presidential candidate since the Reagan era.

Despite their overall Democratic lean, Jewish voters are more likely to report high levels of concern over growing antisemitism in the Democratic Party than within the Republican Party. “Security, Israel, and antisemitism” are Harris’s weakest issue relative to former President Donald Trump among Jewish voters. Many are likely uncomfortable with the Democratic Party’s tolerance of voices that criticize Israel in extreme terms, such as labeling the country “genocidal.” This is evidenced by the fact that Jews are almost universally supportive of Israel—a mere 5% of Jewish voters say they are not supporters of the Jewish state.

While Jewish voters are strongly aligned with Democrats on the issue of abortion—even a majority of Jewish Republicans describe themselves as generally pro-choice—their views on immigration and fiscal issues don’t match either party. Jewish voters are fiscal moderates, concerned about out-of-control government spending but sympathetic to higher taxes on people in middle- to upper-income brackets. On immigration, they want more vetting in the process but are supportive of increasing high-skilled immigration. On crime, Jewish voters more closely align with Republicans and feel the nation’s criminal justice system is not tough enough. The result is that a significant majority of Jewish voters now say they are open to supporting Republican politicians, while roughly a third report that they will back only Democrats.

Jewish voters support laws banning people from wearing masks or otherwise covering their face with the intent to conceal their identity while congregating in a public place, like a public protest or encampment—an increasingly salient issue following post-October 7th, 2023, incidents of anti-Israel activists seeking to intimidate Jewish students on college campuses, members of Congress, and city dwellers across America.

Jewish voters support taxing university endowments and prefer a color-blind society over a race-conscious one. They are closely divided on affirmative action and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion initiatives—as well as on the question of whether those programs do more harm than good when it comes to dealing with antisemitism.

A majority of Jewish voters think the media does a bad job of portraying Israel and a plurality say mainstream Jewish community interest groups in the U.S., like the Anti-Defamation League or the American Jewish Committee, combat antisemitism in a way that is too weak.

Full Results Available: Toplines (Party), Toplines (Denomination), Crosstabs

The Democratic advantage among Jewish voters has been consistently slipping in recent presidential election cycles, and Harris is on track for the narrowest margin of victory with Jewish voters (+36%) of any candidate since Michael Dukakis in 1988 (+29%). Her margin is markedly lower than Bill Clinton’s +69% margin in 1992, Barack Obama’s +56% in 2008, and Hillary Clinton’s +47% in 2016 (Figure 1). A hypothetical Harris ticket featuring Jewish Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro—who was passed over as Harris’s VP pick, reportedly in part due to his support for Israel—performs two points better against Trump and JD Vance among Jewish voters.

Figure 1

Harris’s margin is driven by strength among Reform (+53%) and unaffiliated or nondenominational (+45%) Jews. Among Conservative (throughout this document, the Conservative Jewish religious denomination will be capitalized; the conservative American political ideology will not be) Jewish voters (+14%), her support is significantly weaker. Orthodox Jewish voters prefer Trump (+18%) over Harris.

Jews who attend religious services frequently are more supportive of Trump than those who attend infrequently. Among Jews who attend weekly, Harris leads Trump 51% to 46%. Among those who never attend religious services, Harris leads Trump 75% to 24% (Figure 2).

Figure 2

President Joe Biden has a net favorability of +28% among Jewish voters, with –31% among Orthodox, +7% among Conservative Jews, +45% among Reform Jews, and +41% among unaffiliated or nondenominational Jews.

Jewish voters have strongly unfavorable views on Trump, who has a –39 net favorability among all Jews. He has positive favorability among Orthodox Jews (+25%) but is swamped among Conservative (–23%), Reform (–56%), and unaffiliated or nondenominational (–49%) Jews.

Harris boasts higher approval than Biden, with a +32% net favorability driven by strength among Reform (+50%) and nondenominational Jews (+41%). She performs better among Orthodox (–29%) and Conservative (+13%) Jews than Biden does.

A little over a quarter of Jewish voters identify as politically conservative (and 11% as very conservative) and just under half as liberal (21% very), but this varies dramatically by religious denomination. Among Orthodox Jewish voters, 50% are conservative (28% very), and 31% are liberal (13% very). Among Conservative Jews, 44% are conservative (18% very), 33% are liberal (17% very). Among Reform Jews, 19% are conservative (6% very) and 74% are liberal (37% very). Among nondenominational or unaffiliated Jews, 13% are conservative (7% very) and 47% are liberal (26% very)—this is also the group most likely to identify as ideologically moderate (40%) (Figure 3).

Figure 3

60% of Jewish voters think of themselves as Democrats, 23% as Republicans, and 15% as independents—but again, denominational gaps are stark. Orthodox Jews lean Republican, while other Jews are overwhelmingly Democratic.

Notably, despite this, only 34% report exclusively voting for Democrats and 12% exclusively for Republicans. Even among more liberal Reform (38% only Democrats) and nondenominational Jews (41%), the majority does not vote exclusively Democratic.

Jewish voters, as a whole, select abortion most frequently as their top issue in the 2024 election (33%). Abortion is followed by the economy (28%), democracy/election integrity (27%), security, Israel, and antisemitism (22%), immigration (19%), inflation/prices (19%), healthcare (16%), and climate/environment (14%).

However, there are significant denominational gaps in issue prioritization. For Reform and unaffiliated/nondenominational Jews, abortion topped out the rankings followed by democracy/election integrity. For Orthodox Jews, security, Israel, and antisemitism topped issue importance. For Conservative Jews, the economy was the top issue—closely trailed by abortion (Figure 4).

Figure 4

The Democratic Party is least trusted by Jewish voters overall on security, Israel, and antisemitism (+16%). This is followed by taxes and government spending (+26%), the economy (+28%), and inflation (+29%). The Democratic Party's trust advantage was the strongest on abortion (+55%), climate/environment (+44%) and health care (+42%). Among Jewish independents, Democrats have a net positive trust advantage on abortion (+55%), climate and environment (+33%), and health care (+26%) but are net underwater with independents on the economy (–21%), taxes and government (–10%), security, Israel, and antisemitism (–9%), and immigration (–9%).

Orthodox Jews say they align more closely with Republicans than Democrats on Israel, security, and antisemitism by a margin of 41 points. Conservative Jews prefer Democrats on the issue, but only by 6 points. Reform Jews and Jews who aren’t affiliated with any of the major denominations hold views closer to the Democratic Party’s on Israel and antisemitism, though by a significantly slimmer margin than their support for Democrats on other policy issues (Figure 5).

Figure 5

Despite Jewish voters leaning Democratic, they are slightly more concerned about rising antisemitism in the Democratic Party (with 41% saying they are extremely concerned) than in the GOP (38% extremely concerned). Politically independent Jews were significantly more likely to say they are “extremely” concerned about rising antisemitism in the Democratic party (46%) than in the Republican Party (30%).

Orthodox Jews are more concerned about antisemitism in the Democratic Party (49% extremely concerned about Democrats, 20% about Republicans), as are Conservative Jews (47% and 35%). Reform Jews are slightly more concerned about the Republican Party (47%) than the Democratic Party (40%), and non-denominational Jews were less concerned about both (33% Democratic, 35% Republican).

Across all of American Jewry, support for Israel is strong, consistent, and bipartisan (83% of Democratic Jews, 86% of Independents, and 94% of Republicans). Just 5% of Orthodox Jews, 7% of Conservative Jews, 4% of Reform Jews, and 6% of Jews who do not identify with any major domination do not consider themselves supporters of Israel (Figure 6).

Figure 6

Only 2% of Jews say the media does a very good job of portraying Israel, while 10% say the media does a somewhat good job. Majorities of Jews in each major religious denomination feel that the media does a bad job of portraying the Jewish state.

When it comes to assessing how mainstream Jewish community interest groups in the U.S., like the Anti-Defamation League or the American Jewish Committee, are handling the task of combating antisemitism, a 37% plurality say these groups are generally too weak in their approach. Just 7% of Jews feel the tack taken by these organizations is too aggressive.

By a very narrow margin, Jewish voters tend to think the government should spend less to reduce taxes (43%) rather than spend more to provide more goods and services (41%). Independent (57% spend less to 30% spend more) and Republican (76% spend less to 8% spend more) Jews felt particularly strongly about this question (Figure 7).

Figure 7

When it comes to the government deficit and long-term debt, a majority of Jewish voters, across all political parties, say the government should reduce the deficit, even if it means reducing spending (58%) as opposed to continuing to run a deficit so we can keep spending the same (22%).

On taxes and spending, a 51% majority of Jewish voters say that people in the middle- to upper-income brackets should pay higher taxes so that we don’t have to cut government services. Just 37% feel that nobody should pay higher taxes and that we should cut spending because government is ineffective at spending money. Support is driven by Reform and nondenominational Jews—55% majorities of both groups favor higher taxes for wealthier Americans. Orthodox (56%) and Conservative (49%) Jews gravitate toward the idea that nobody should see a tax increase. But Jewish voters across all religious denominations favor the idea of government taxing university endowments.

By a wide margin (61% to 20%), Jewish voters of all political types and levels of observance support mandating that all visa applicants at foreign consulates be asked how they feel about terrorist organizations like Hamas and ISIS. By an even more overwhelming 75% to 12% margin, Jewish voters support revising the Immigration and Naturalization Act to include antisemitic activities as a new criterion for inadmissibility.

A third of Jewish voters believe that all or most illegal immigrants in the U.S. should be deported. Another third support a pathway to citizenship. The rest support some sort of work authorization or are unsure.

Leaving aside illegal immigration, only 20% of Jewish voters believe that legal immigration to the U.S. should be curtailed, with 41% saying it should be kept at its current level and 28% saying it should be increased.

Support for increasing legal immigration is strongest when zeroing in on the highly skilled—people with advanced degrees or extensive experience, like engineers and doctors—with 41% in support of increasing, 39% keeping at present level, and 8% decreasing. Support for increasing low-skilled immigration—for people without advanced degrees or extensive experience, like farm laborers and factory workers—is weaker: 24% of Jewish voters support increasing, 18% decreasing, and 41% keeping the same.

A large majority (58%) of Jewish voters believe it is more important to make sentences harsh to reduce crime than it is to limit the length of sentences to reduce mass incarceration. Only a quarter prioritize reducing mass incarceration over the former (Figure 8).

Figure 8

Building on that finding, just 15% of Jewish voters say that America’s criminal justice system is too tough. A sizable plurality (47%) of Jews feel that the criminal justice system is not tough enough, while a quarter feel the system is about right in how it handles crime.

61% of Jewish voters feel that protestors should not be allowed to cover their faces because they are engaging in the same menacing tactics as the KKK, shielding their identities from the public and making it easier to commit crimes. Only 27% instead say that protestors should be allowed to cover their faces because that is their right; protesting anonymously is acceptable and there are also health reasons to wear a face mask in public.

Jewish voters overwhelmingly identify as “pro-choice,” with 80% categorizing themselves as such, including 74% of Independents and 50% of Republicans. Only 12% identify as “pro-life,” including just 7% of independents and 37% of Republicans.

57% of Jewish voters say that a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice, while 27% think the law should permit a woman to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice in some cases, but not in all cases. Just 12% feel that the law should permit a woman to obtain an abortion only in cases of rape, incest, or when the woman's life is in danger, and only a mere 2% of Jews say that, by law, a woman should never be able to obtain an abortion.

When it comes to the timeline for how long abortions should be permitted, opinion is more mixed, with 6% putting the cutoff at 6 weeks or less, 23% at 12 weeks or less (17% plus the original 6%), and 49% at 24 weeks or less (26% plus 23%). 42% believe abortion should always be allowed, and 9% were unsure.

Just 21% of Jewish voters feel that specialized programs at corporations, universities, and other institutions set up to promote Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion—or “DEI”—generally help decrease antisemitism, while 24% believe that DEI increases antisemitism. Orthodox Jews —the most visibly Jewish denomination, which requires the most religious accommodations in schools and workplaces—were most likely to believe that DEI increases antisemitism, at 48% (Figure 9).

Figure 9

58% of Jewish voters—including a majority of Republicans (75%) and independents (71%), and a plurality of Democrats (49%)—agree that we should focus on creating a colorblind society where everyone is treated equally regardless of the color of their skin, as opposed to a race-conscious society to repair the harms of the past by developing policies that benefit marginalized groups.

Despite their progressive bent on many issues, Reform Jews prefer a colorblind society over a race-conscious one by a 58% to 31% margin. Interestingly, Orthodox Jews—who generally tend to have more conservative sensibilities on policy matters—have a narrower divide, with 48% opting for a colorblind society and 36% a race-conscious one (Figure 10).

Figure 10

Nevertheless, the historically left-leaning religious demographic is not yet ready to abandon its long legacy of ardent progressivism on racial issues wholesale. Jewish voters still narrowly oppose banning colleges and universities from considering an applicant's race and ethnicity when making decisions about admissions or staff employment (43% support, 45% oppose) and ending government funding for DEI offices, initiatives, and staff at public universities (39% support, 44% oppose).

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