New Report: The Futility of Climate Change Negotiations

New York, NY — At the end of next month, the nations of the world will gather in Paris for the conclusion of the twenty-first round of climate change negotiations. A new paper by Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow Oren Cass shows that the 196 parties are no closer to a meaningful agreement than they were in the first round.

Cass shows that the common understanding of climate change as a “collective action” problem is incorrect, and that the international negotiating framework does not even attempt to build toward an agreement under which all nations commit to substantially reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. Rather, the negotiations entail developing nations demanding compensation for climate-related harms while promising no action in return.

Yet those same developing nations are projected to produce four-fifths of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions this century. Cass finds that even if the developed world ceased emissions altogether tomorrow, the developing world would need to cut their current emissions rates by more than half—and remain at that level indefinitely—to stay within international targets through 2100. He demonstrates that countries like India and China, far from making progress in that direction, are putting forward “commitments” that leave them on their pre-existing, business-as-usual paths.

Cass explores each form an effective agreement might take and demonstrates that none is viable either economically or politically. Given this, Cass recommends that Congress act in advance of the talks to constrain the options that U.S. negotiators will have in Paris. By rejecting a superficial agreement that might otherwise emerge from Paris as proof of “progress,” Congress can help define the set of possible outcomes as either a genuine and enforceable agreement or no agreement at all. The sooner all sides acknowledge the futility and farce of the existing process, the sooner they can move on from an approach to climate change that is leading nowhere.

Click here to read the full report.