New Report: Students for Fair Admissions Decision Reshapes Elite College Enrollment

Analysis of new federal data reveals fewer Black and Hispanic freshmen, and more white and Asian freshmen, at highly selective schools

NEW YORK, NY – During the litigation that culminated in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard (SFFA), Harvard, UNC, and many peer institutions argued that race-neutral admissions policies would not allow them to maintain the racial diversity they deemed necessary to their educational missions. Almost three years after the Supreme Court struck down the use of race as a factor in admissions, new federal data make it possible to test what happened next: Did elite universities' freshman classes change as predicted, or did some institutions' warnings to the Court prove overstated?

In a new Manhattan Institute report, fellow Robert VerBruggen analyzes the first broad federal data on freshman enrollment after SFFA, using IPEDS data covering more than 1,000 four-year colleges from 2010 to 2024. VerBruggen finds that the most selective colleges experienced noticeable, though modest, racial demographic shifts after SFFA. 

Key findings include: 

• Black and Hispanic freshman representation declined at elite schools, while white and Asian enrollment often increased.
• At Ivy League schools, Black enrollment fell from about 11% to 8%; Hispanic enrollment fell from 16% to 15%; white enrollment rose from 35% to 37%; and Asian enrollment rose from 30% to 32%.
• Test-score requirements may have effects similar to SFFA and shift enrollment away from Black and Hispanic applicants at selective schools. 

VerBruggen also stresses that the data vary considerably across schools, and that a lack of demographic change does not necessarily indicate noncompliance with SFFA, especially so soon after the decision. That said, the report calls for increased scrutiny where warranted, as well as more detailed admissions transparency. 

Click here to read the full report.