New Manhattan Institute Poll: Do Democrats Want to Be “Normal?” Survey Analysis of Today’s Democratic Coalition

Manhattan Institute polling finds Democratic voters are more pragmatic and internally divided than elite discourse suggests

NEW YORK, NY – Despite the prominence of progressive activism in Democratic politics and online discourse, a new national survey conducted by the Manhattan Institute finds that many voters within today's Democratic coalition are more moderate than media narratives suggest. 

This survey, which reached 2,593 respondents who are either registered Democrats and/or voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, finds that more Democrats would like to see their party move to the center than to the left. Moreover, this poll identifies three blocs within the Democratic Party: Moderates (47% of the Democratic coalition, they favor middle-of-the-road views across most contentious policy issues); Progressive Liberals (37% of the Democratic coalition, they lean left but remain close to their party's institutional mainstream); and The Woke Fringe (11% of the Democratic coalition, they take maximalist positions on issues and are disproportionately young and conspiratorial). The results of this survey consistently reflect this structure, with many of the coalition's majority positions shaped by moderates rather than by the party's most ideologically activist faction. 

Click here to read the author's X thread breaking down the results. 

Key findings include:  

• Immigration: Only 11% of Democrats support a true "open borders" position, with majorities favoring a skills-based immigration system that prioritizes the deportation of criminal illegal immigrants. 

• Public safety: While divided over the criminal justice system overall, majorities of Democrats support aggressive prosecution for gun crimes (71% to 18%), view the police as essential to maintain public safety (55%), and reject political violence (74%). 
• Transgender policy: Most Democratic parents support parental notification requirements in schools, oppose biological boys playing in girls' sports leagues, and believe that gender-related medical intervention should have age limits. 

• Economic policy: Democrats favor redistribution and consumer protections, yet 63% reported feeling concerned about welfare fraud. Many Democrats expressed openness to free trade and supply-side economic policies. 

• National identity and foreign policy: 62% of Democrats affirm Israel’s right to exist (with 23% saying they are unsure) and 64% believe that the United States has historically been a force for good in the world. Younger voters are notably more skeptical of Israel and willing to tolerate antisemitism in their party. 

Click here to read the full survey results.