New Manhattan Institute Poll: American Attitudes on Welfare, Waste, Crime, and the Political Environment

NEW YORK, NY – Thirty years after President Bill Clinton signed the landmark 1996 welfare reform law, a new national survey conducted by the Manhattan Institute finds that the program's work requirements, targeted aid, and in-kind benefits retain broad, durable support among the American public. The survey also finds a competitive midterm environment, wide-open presidential primary fields in both parties, and an overwhelming public opposition to abolishing police, prisons, and U.S. borders. 

Key findings of the poll include: 

• Midterms: Democrats hold a narrow lead on the generic congressional ballot, as President Trump's job approval stands at 44% approve to 54% disapprove. 
• 2028 Republican primary: JD Vance leads with 37% support to Marco Rubio's 20%, but a hypothetical Trump endorsement flips a head-to-head Vance-Rubio matchup by double digits in either direction. 
• 2028 Democratic primary: The field remains wide open, with Kamala Harris leading at just 19%, followed by Gavin Newsom (15%), Pete Buttigieg (13%), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12%). 
• Welfare reform at 30 years: Voters overwhelmingly back the pillars of the 1996 reform, including work requirements (74% to 17%), targeted assistance to those most in need rather than universal benefits (67% to 24%), and delivering in-kind rather than unrestricted cash (80% support). Yet younger voters break from this consensus, with those under 35 representing the only age group that supports a universal basic income (49% to 30%). Voters 65 and older reject a universal basic income by a margin of nearly four to one. 
• Waste, fraud, and abuse: A majority of voters (53%) view cracking down on waste, fraud, and abuse in government assistance programs as a priority, compared with 31% who prioritize making benefits more accessible. Nearly half of respondents (48%) believe most welfare spending is lost to waste and fraud rather than reaching those in need. 
• Abolitionist policies: Roughly four in five voters oppose abolishing police departments (82%), prisons (79%), and U.S. borders (78%), including majorities of self-described "very left-leaning" voters. 

Click here to read the author's X thread breaking down the results.

To interview one of the poll's authors about the results of these findings as well as national and local implications, please reach out to dshapiro@manhattan.institute. 

Click here to read the full poll.