New Issue Brief: Why “Percent Plans” for University Admissions Aren’t a Colorblind Success

NEW YORK, NY – In the wake of the Supreme Court’s 2023 ruling against affirmative action in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, many policymakers have become newly interested in “percent plans”—policies that guarantee a certain percentage of top-ranking high school seniors automatic admission to their state’s university system—as a supposed race-neutral alternative. New York Governor Kathy Hochul, for instance, implemented the “Top 10% Promise” in the state last year, which offers students ranked in the top 10% of their graduating class direct admission to the State University of New York (SUNY) system. A new issue brief from Manhattan Institute fellow Renu Mukherjee critically examines these policies and finds that, far from being true meritocratic solutions, they often function as affirmative action by another name. 

Focusing on the nation’s three original percent plans in Texas, California, and Florida, Mukherjee argues that the plans grant de facto racial preferences by utilizing existing segregation among high schools to increase the number of black and Hispanic students at state flagships. By reserving coveted university seats based solely on high school GPA—without considering standardized test scores, school competitiveness, or coursework—these policies raise serious questions about the academic preparedness and performance of percent plan enrollees compared to non-percent plan enrollees. While some percent plan enrollees initially post strong freshman-year GPAs and SAT scores, their performance often converges with or falls behind that of their non-percent plan peers. 

As more states consider percent plans as a “race-neutral” alternative in response to the Supreme Court’s affirmative-action ban and the Trump administration’s pledge to enforce the ban to the fullest extent, Mukherjee warns that these policies may soon face legal challenges. For states that choose to prioritize colorblind and merit-based systems, she urges policymakers to incorporate standardized test scores—which are a stronger predictor of academic performance in college than high school GPA—rather than rely on basic ranking systems that can act as a backdoor for racial preferences. 

Click here to read the full issue brief.