Prediction markets show Hillary Clinton with an 84 percent chance of winning on Nov. 8. But even with the gap between Clinton's and Donald Trump's overall support, one major question will remain unanswered after Election Day: When will millennials begin to split along typical Republican-Democratic lines?
A September Quinnipiac University poll found that Clinton led among 18-34 year olds with 31 percent of the group's support. Surprisingly, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson finished ahead of Trump (29 percent and 26 percent) and Jill Stein, the Green Party's nominee, captured 15 percent. This means that millennials' support for third-party candidates was 13 percentage points higher than their support for Clinton.
Trends away from youth support for the major political parties extend beyond this election. A plurality of millennials (41 percent) identity as independents, which is the highest rate for any generation and up from 34 percent in 2004. It is no wonder that millennials have been called the politically unclaimed generation.
Many issues determine millennials' political leanings and engagement, but this generation's views on economic policy are some of the most important.
The employment picture for millennials is bleak. For 18 and 19 year olds, the unemployment rate is 15.2 percent. For Americans ages 20 to 24 years, the rate is 8.1 percent. In contrast, those in their prime earning years face an unemployment rate of just 3.6 percent.
Many millennials have the desire to start their own firms. Young voters' respect for entrepreneurs goes far beyond near-universal reverence for Steve Jobs. Polls consistently find that two-thirds of millennials want to work for themselves.
This embrace of entrepreneurship is a point that both major presidential candidates fail to mention, much less emphasize. When it comes to the economy, it isn't promises of free college, as I explain below, nor the return of 1950s manufacturing jobs that resonate with young voters. It is instead the attraction of technology and flexible work. Without the economic growth that technology can provide, there is little hope of lowering millennials' high unemployment rates. Millennials will have trouble finding funding or a customer base with GDP growth hovering around 1.5 percent.
Clinton or Trump could have connected with young voters during the debates by saying that, while the American Dream may have once been finding employment at a large company, working there for a few decades, and then retiring with a defined-benefit pension, millennials' American Dream looks much different than their parents' and grandparents'. Young people prioritize new opportunities to change or advance their careers, and they prefer individualized, flexible work arrangements, which are the model of the future for many occupations.
The model of being able to work whenever and wherever someone wants extends far beyond popular services such as Uber. Because of the newfound ability to reach customers through Internet platforms, everyone from graphic designers to lawyers can connect with customers and market their businesses more easily than ever before. This is why millennials of all political leanings overwhelmingly support the sharing economy.
Many commentators miss these ideas and mistakenly cite Sen. Bernie Sanders' call for free college as his main point of appeal towards young voters. This cannot be millennials' driving concern, as Clinton adopted many of the key points in his plan and still fails to attract Sanders' level of youth support. Never mind that most millennials already are past their college years. It should also be noted that on the sharing economy, Sanders was at odds with his young supporters. He even stated that he is "not a fan of Uber" because the service is "unregulated."
So why did young voters flock to Sanders if they are in favor of disruptive innovation and not able to be bought with promises of free college? An interesting perspective comes from Kristin Tate, the author of a book on how government policy affects millennials, who wrote in the Hill that the appearance of authenticity is what drove young voters to Sanders during the primary. This is the same reason why former Rep. Ron Paul did so well among millennials in the 2012 Republican primary. "Authentic" is a label that is rarely used to describe Clinton, but the appearance of authenticity is one reason for Trump's support.
As I argued in my testimony before the House Republican Policy Committee last year, the political party that can brand itself as the party of entrepreneurs, innovation and economic growth is the party that will make headway towards claiming the millennial generation. Maybe that will happen in 2020. But this November, millennials will remain the politically unclaimed generation.
This article originally appeared in the Washington Examiner
Jared Meyer is a fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. Follow him on Twitter here.
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