It seems everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop and a recession to come. The hope is that then the Fed will cut interest rates and we'll get our pre-pandemic economy back. Believers point to the latest JOLTS number, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that tracks labor market tightness as evidence that time is soon. Job vacancies fell since the last survey, suggesting a tighter labor market. But vacancies are still much higher than they were in 2019. Unemployment is also at a multi-decade low. With inflation still high, it is hard to see the case for a Fed pivot anytime soon.
Source: FRED
Allison Schrager is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Follow her on Twitter here.
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