It may seem that we've avoided a recession as inflation falls and unemployment remains low. And we may get that soft landing, but it's impossible to predict. A recession often comes when you combine a negative shock and a weak economy. And there's evidence that inflation weakened the economy, making it more vulnerable to whatever comes along. The latest data from JP Morgan shows bank balances falling as Americans live with lower real wages. They may be in better shape than before the pandemic, but the resilience that existed a year ago may be wearing away.
Source: JP Morgan Chase Institute
Allison Schrager is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Follow her on Twitter here.
Interested in real economic insights? Want to stay ahead of the competition? Sign up for our weekly newsletter here.
Photo by Warchi/iStock