March 14, 2025

A protest this week in Manhattan over the arrest of Mahmoud Khalil by ICE. Photo by Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images

But before we get into it all, I want you to entertain the idea that Socialist Zohran Mamdani could actually become the next mayor of New York City. I know it sounds crazy, but we live in strange times, and the Democrats that stayed home in the general election could give us Mamdani as mayor in June.

The man is a celebrity on social media, and his platform — easily summed up as free buses, free childcare, and frozen rent — appeals to the disenfranchised masses struggling to make it in a city that no longer makes social mobility easy. It may be easy to dismiss, but he has tapped into something real.

That tale of two cities is only too obvious in a new poll focused on people’s lived experiences, where pollster John Della Volpe and his public opinion research firm SocialSphere surveyed over 2,000 of the city’s primary and general election voters. 

The survey divides respondents into five voter segments. In order of size, they’re Discontented Strivers, Pragmatic Progressives, Law & Order Conservatives, Progressive Reformers, and Traditional Outer Borough Voters. (The data is not segmented based on political affiliation — so keep in mind that about 66% of city voters are registered Democrats, 11% are Republicans, and this election will probably be decided in the Democratic primary in June.)

Courtesy of John Della Volpe and Social Sphere

Responses to the questions and focus groups reveal voters living in significantly different versions of the same city, with political identities that defy simple labels. 

The group that is most interesting and without a clear candidate to represent them is the Discontented Strivers — 29% of voters, working class people who are fairly progressive, but have high safety concerns and are frustrated that nothing seems to change for the better. They are planning to show up at the primaries in large numbers, along with their more progressive neighbors, based on the responses.  

These are likely the same voters who helped bring us Eric Adams, when the disconnect between the progressives’ perception of crime showed itself to be at odds with the lived experience of the people they think they speak for. Mamdani aligns with them on his focus on affordability — but not his stance on public safety. 

If Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch manages to move the needle on the quality-of-life issues affecting perception of crime, and making people feel safer on the subways before June — one could see the appeal of Mamdani’s campaign promises to that subgroup. Making buses free would very directly improve affordability for the poorest residents: those who ride the buses and can ill afford groceries and rent increases. And some voters these days are inclined to wreak havoc. Nothing seems to be working anyway, so why not go all out? 

(The non-profit newsroom The City has a good write-up of the results).

From Left: Andrew Cuomo, Adrienne Adams, Eric Adams, Brad Lander, Scott Stringer, Zellnor Myrie, Jessica Ramos, Zohran Mamdani, Michael Blake and Whitney Tilson. Images via Getty

If you’d like to learn more about the candidates, the New York Editorial Board, of which both Nicole Gelinas and I are members, has so far interviewed Brad Lander, Jessica Ramos, Zohran Mamdani, and Jim Walden, and Whitney Tilson.

Protestors march through the streets of Lower Manhattan in protest of the detention of Mahmoud Khalil (not seen) by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on March 10, 2025. Photo by Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images

Progressive candidates, including Brad Lander, Scott Stringer, Zellnor Myrie, Jessica Ramos, and Socialist Zohran Mamdani, denounced the arrest as authoritarian and unconstitutional. Lander cited Holocaust-era warnings against remaining silent on government overreach. Adrienne Adams called it a civil rights issue. 

Khalil, a Syrian-born Palestinian, a legal permanent resident, and one of the leaders of the student protests at Columbia University against Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, was detained by ICE last Saturday and is in Louisiana awaiting deportation hearings.  

Mayor Eric Adams refused to take a position, saying “I cannot say it enough: ICE handles who's deported and who's not deported. Not the mayor of New York.” 

Former Gov. Cuomo said in a guarded statement to the New York Times that “facts and evidence must be presented and weighed.” Lander, Mamdani, and Adrienne Adams signed a letter to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security urging for Khalil’s “immediate release back to his family in New York City. We also call on the administration to remove ICE and DHS from our campuses. Finally, we urge Columbia University to cease any and all cooperation with immigration officials who violate our sanctuary city protections and put their students at risk.”

The Jewish Telegraphic Agency compiled a full list of statements from the main candidates for mayor on the arrest.

 Mahmoud Khalil talks to the press in 2024. Photo by Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images

“Do you believe in the First Amendment, Tom Homan? What charges did you detain Mahmoud Khalil on?” —  Assemblymember Mamdani from Queens shouted at Trump’s border czar Tom Homan, who was in Albany on Wednesday.

In NYC, about 40% of residents are foreign born, with about half that number naturalized citizens, the rest a mix of green card or other visa holders as well as unauthorized migrants. The arrest of Khalil has sparked a level of outrage and concern in the city from politicians and immigrant advocates, as well as protests, demonstrations and sit-ins, but the case seems to be far from clear.

The Immigration and Nationality Act says that aliens, which includes green card holders like Khalil, can be deported if they “espouse or endorse terrorist activity.” They can also be deported if the Secretary of State determines their presence here “would compromise a compelling United States foreign policy interest.” Did he? Is his speech protected by the First Amendment? 

“The real question,” Yale Law School's Jed Rubenfeld writes in the Free Press, “is whether, or when, or to what extent aliens have the same constitutional rights as citizens.” The answer is complicated, and how it will play out in the courts remains to be seen. The Manhattan Institute's Ilya Shapiro thinks the Administration is within its rights.

Photo Credit: Jim Franco/Albany Times Union via Getty Images

Legislative budget proposals were released Tuesday, and lawmakers want an even more generous plan than the governor. They also set the stage for what is likely going to be the biggest fight with the governor: changes to discovery reforms and involuntary commitment law that have held up budgets in the past. Both houses again want higher taxes on the rich, which has historically been opposed by the Governor.

“Skyrocketing spending is cracking New York’s fiscal foundation. The Assembly and Senate both propose to add roughly $4 billion in recurring spending on top of the Governor’s proposal,” Citizens Budget Commission responded. “This would bring year-over-year adjusted State Operating Funds growth to a whopping 13.7 percent, more than 4 times the rate of inflation. This unsustainable and unaffordable growth will ultimately drive future cuts to services New Yorkers rely on.”  

The MTA: To fund capital improvements, assembly members are proposing increasing the payroll mobility tax, and charging for online package deliveries and using ride apps, Crain’s reports. 

Schools: State lawmakers are pushing back against Hochul’s proposal to ban cellphones “bell-to-bell” in schools, want to give districts more flexibility, to allow use during non-instruction time, and to make sure students don’t get suspended for violating the rules, Chalkbeat reports. 

Banning cellphone use in schools is a simple solution to fight distraction, with well documented benefits and widespread support among teachers and parents, Manhattan Institute’s John Ketcham writes.

He addresses common concerns in great detail in an issue brief that also proposes model legislation — in essence, “no smartphones should be visible on school grounds during school hours or in school-sponsored activities,” Ketcham writes. “Our proposed bright-line rule allows school employees who observe students using smartphones to instantly and easily determine that such use is prohibited and enforce the rules.”

Photo Credit: Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images 

Photo Credit: Lindsey Nicholson/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Photo Credit: Free Agents Limited via Getty Images

For over two years, Mayor Eric Adams has consistently supported NYPD’s elite Community Response Team and its leaders, despite warnings from NYPD officials that the unit's policing methods have been excessively aggressive, ProPublica reports. 

“The unit was essentially off the books — it had never gone through the NYPD’s process for creating teams, there was no announcement at its debut and many of its members weren’t formally assigned to the group,” ProPublica writes of the ghost unit with a direct line to the mayor. 

Now, CRT’s founder and leader Kaz Daughtry is Adams’ Deputy Mayor for Public Safety.

Brooklyn's eccentric, oceanside neighborhoods of Brighton Beach and Coney Island play starring roles in Anora. You can visit the candy shop, just like they did int Photo by CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images

Anora, the movie about a prostitute and the son of a Russian oligarch that took home this year’s Best Picture award from the Oscars, takes place in part in a giant modernist mansion in southern Brooklyn. New York Magazine just published a fascinating feature on “The Real Russian Oligarch Family Who Built Anora’s Mansion.”  

Much of the movie was shot in Brighton Beach and Coney Island, and you can stop by the candy store just like the kids do in the film, before going for a nice long walk along the beach. It's nice in the off-season.