Vice-presidential picks, if political science is to be believed, seldom have a great impact on the outcome of elections. But if they are rarely determinative, they are often revelatory. The choice of veep, and the reaction to the choice, can be clarifying moments for how major players within the party see their coalitions, and how the press and the broader public interpret what the parties stand for.
This year’s veepstakes are especially interesting. Most obviously, because Biden’s late exit left us with one more selection than we had anticipated, and one that provides information—precious because so scarce—of what Harris will prioritize now that she’s been elevated to the top of the ticket. On the other side of the aisle, Trump is the first candidate since Nixon to run with a different number two than on a previous bid. It is thus natural that there would be great attention to Trump’s selection this time around, as a barometer for how his approach may have changed from 2016 and 2020. Notably, the picks seem to point in contrary directions.
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Gregory Conti is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and an assistant professor of politics at Princeton. He is also Compact's editor-at-large.
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