Protests and passive policing added to the problem during Covid, not illegal immigration.
Crime tends to rise with the thermostat. The summer months mean no school and more idle young people. Violent criminals typically know their victims, and warm weather is when we gather for family reunions and block parties. Criminologists have demonstrated that heat can increase aggression.
Come autumn, we’ll find out to what extent the pattern holds, but the good news is that crime mostly declined in the first half of 2025. An analysis of 42 cities—the largest was New York, the smallest was Cary, N.C., population 180,000—found a decrease in violent offenses (aggravated assault, sexual assault, gun assault, carjacking) compared with the first six months of 2024. “The homicide rate during the first half of 2025 was 17% lower, on average, than during the same period in 2024, representing 327 fewer homicides in the cities that reported data,” according to the Council on Criminal Justice, which produced the study.
At an event with the Fraternal Order of Police in June, President Trump claimed credit for these positive developments. “We’ve removed thousands of violent criminal illegal aliens from our communities as part of the largest deportation effort in American history,” he said. “And just a few months into office, the national murder rate has plummeted by 28%.” Deporting undocumented migrants who have committed violent crimes is commendable. It’s also prudent, since most crimes are committed by previous offenders.
Continue reading the entire piece here at the Wall Street Journal (paywall)
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Jason L. Riley is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a columnist at The Wall Street Journal, and a Fox News commentator. Follow him on Twitter here.
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