The CBO vs. the CMS on the AHCA
When the CBO released its score of the AHCA, Democrats seized on huge cuts to federal health-care spending and a massive increase in the number of uninsured. The White House pushed back, alleging that CBO was politicized, and noting how far off the mark CBO had so regularly been in the past.
This week we received a second opinion, that of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services actuary (OACT) — which doubtless will give Democrats a turn to allege politicization and a bad track record. So, how different is the current estimate?
Well, on first inspection, there is a substantial difference. Where CBO predicted that 23 million more Americans would be uninsured in 2026 under the AHCA than would be under the current law, OACT predicts that the number will be 13 million. Where CBO predicts a $1,111 billion decline in federal spending over ten years, OACT predicts only a $328 billion decline.
Yet, looking at the details, there is a surprising amount of agreement. The projected costs....
Christopher Pope is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.
This piece originally appeared in National Review Online