Good morning:
The recent City Journal investigation by Ryan Thorpe and Christopher Rufo exposed a web of massive fraud schemes involving Minnesota’s Somali community that has stolen billions of dollars in taxpayer money. But this is more than a mere local news story.
According to Thorpe and Rufo’s law enforcement sources, millions of dollars in stolen funds have been sent back to Somalia and are under the control of the terror group Al-Shabaab. As one of their confidential sources put it: “The largest funder of Al-Shabaab is the Minnesota taxpayer.”
Thorpe and Rufo’s work was featured in the New York Times and CBS News. It was highlighted by President Trump on social media, discussed on Laura Ingraham’s Fox News show, and featured in the Minnesota Star Tribune.
Part of the investigation’s staying power is in how it busts the left-wing myth that mass immigration, antiracism, and the welfare state are a benign or even benevolent combination in American society. Instead, Christopher Rufo writes in a follow-up article for City Journal, the scope and scale of fraud in the Somali community are forcing devoted liberals to question “the welfare state’s compatibility with mass migration.”
Somalis are not the first immigrant group to arrive in the United States and clash with American culture, writes Jason L. Riley in the Wall Street Journal. It is not an ugly stereotype to acknowledge that crime ran rampant through Jewish and Italian neighborhoods in the early 1900s; that alcoholism was common among Irish immigrants; that prostitution and gambling plagued Chinese migrants during the Gold Rush. The bright side is that cultures can adapt—but only if policymakers are unafraid of noticing these cultural differences.
In other news, Jesse Arm and Matthew Knee released a new national poll about today’s Republican Party and the MAGA coalition. There is a definite cleavage between the “core Republicans” and the “new entrant Republicans,” who entered the coalition assembled by President Trump. They find that the GOP is broader than ever before, but harder to manage as well.
In the New York Times, Nicole Gelinas writes about how New York Governor Kathy Hochul can serve as a check on the incoming NYC mayor, Zohran Mamdani. “Mr. Mamdani seems to think the historic nature of his victory allows him to steamroll state government,” Gelinas writes. “But he will face political and legal barriers if he tries to treat Albany as a mere inconvenience.” One policy area where Mamdani has less authority than he suggests is in making all city buses fare-free. Instead, the state-funded transit authority determines bus fares.
In addition, Shawn Regan and Matthew E. Kahn write in City Journal that a large body of research shows that fare-free transit creates more problems than it solves. Apparently successful small-city experiments, as in Iowa City, cannot be replicated in a massive system, such as that in Gotham. Mamdani should focus on faster, more reliable buses, not free ones. Continue reading for all these insights and more. Kelsey Bloom Editorial Director |
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The New GOP Survey: Analysis of Americans Overall, Today’s Republican Coalition, and the Minorities of MAGA
By Jesse Arm & Matthew Knee | Manhattan Institute
“A new national survey conducted by the Manhattan Institute examines today’s Republican Party and the coalition assembled by Donald Trump in 2024. It is one of the most exhaustive studies to date of the emerging multi-ethnic, working-class GOP. ...
“The findings point to a coalition that is divided into two broad segments. The majority segment—longstanding Republicans who have backed the party for many years—are consistently conservative on economic, foreign policy, and social issues. They favor lower taxes, take a hawkish view of China, remain firmly pro-Israel, and are highly skeptical of progressive agendas on transgender and DEI issues. But a sizeable minority—new entrants to the GOP coalition over the past two presidential cycles—look markedly different. Younger, more racially diverse, and more likely to have voted for Democratic candidates in the recent past, this group diverges sharply from the party’s core.” |
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The Governor Can Show Mamdani Who Has the Mandate
By Nicole Gelinas | The New York Times
“Zohran Mamdani says voters gave him a mandate to move ahead on his democratic socialist agenda when he becomes mayor of New York. But in tying his success to a specific list of proposals, Mr. Mamdani may have set himself a political trap. He has given Gov. Kathy Hochul an opening to resist plans, even popular ones, that risk harming the state’s economy and budget.
“He needs approval from the State Legislature for most of what he has promised to do, and Ms. Hochul is already making clear that Mr. Mamdani cannot pre-empt the state’s sovereign powers over New York City. If she remains firm, she can demonstrate how Democrats wary of Mr. Mamdani’s populist brand of socialism can push back against it.
“Few of Mr. Mamdani’s major campaign pledges can be fulfilled by municipal government alone.” |
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Can Minnesota’s Somalis Rise Above the Fraud Scandal?
By Jason L. Riley | Wall Street Journal In Minnesota, “the massive fraud was an open secret. ...
“Apparently, no one is supposed to notice that Minnesota’s welfare fraud was heavily concentrated among people who are relatively new to the country and share an ethnic identity. ‘A description of the facts,’ Mr. Rufo wrote, ‘should not be measured as “racist or not racist,” but rather as “true or not true.” And in this case, the truth is that numerous members of a relatively small community participated in a scheme that stole billions in funds.’ “Ahmed Samatar, an expert on Somali culture at Macalester College, told the Times that many Somali refugees were raised in a culture where stealing from the government was common and that a reckoning over the fraud was overdue. ...
“Cultures can adapt, but that will require confronting the problem rather than ignoring it or pretending that anyone who speaks out is acting in bad faith. |
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The Somali Fraud Story Busts Liberal Myths
By Christopher F. Rufo | City Journal
“Though this story was particular to Minnesota, disruptive mass immigration is a national phenomenon. During the four years of the Biden administration, America imported millions of foreigners, many illegally. Some of these have brought, or are trying to bring, negative aspects of their home culture to the United States.
“Indeed, cultural incompatibility was a campaign theme during the 2024 election. Venezuelan gangs took over apartment buildings in Colorado. Haitian migrants overwhelmed deindustrialized towns in the Rust Belt. The Somali fraud story is another point in this plotline. ...
"The New York Times won’t spell it out in block print, but even devoted liberals are starting to ask questions about the welfare state’s combability with mass migration. The shocking scope and scale of the Somali fraud in Minnesota made this a story that could no longer be ignored.”
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Why Free Buses Won’t Work for New York
By Shawn Regan & Matthew E. Kahn | City Journal
“Fare-free bus routes increase crowding. Lines get longer, creating hardships for seniors and others on bad-weather days. Packed buses also raise tempers and heighten the risks of property crime or unwanted encounters with mentally ill riders.
“None of this means that bus fares are sacred. Small systems with low farebox recovery, minimal congestion, and alternative funding sources can make fare-free service work. ... But New York does not fit the small-system profile. The city cannot absorb $800 million in annual revenue losses without either raising taxes—which would require state approval that Governor Kathy Hochul has already signaled she won’t provide—or slashing service elsewhere. ... “If Mamdani wants fewer New Yorkers driving, the path to that goal runs through faster, more reliable buses, not free ones. Iowa City’s success may be real. Its lessons for New York are not.” |
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The Hidden Tax on Your Power Bill: Construction Work in Progress
By Shawn Regan & Matthew E. Kahn | Manhattan Institute
In a new Manhattan Institute issue brief, Eric Olson and his colleagues at the University of Tulsa and West Virginia University examine Construction Work in Progress (CWIP) financing. CWIP allows utilities to charge electric customers for projects that are still under construction. This leads to indiscipline in construction costs and higher bills for consumers.
CWIP is a cautionary tale about how well-intentioned financial tools distort incentives and shift risks when they are applied without adequate safeguards. Originally, CWIP was developed to help utilities finance large projects. In practice, too many CWIP-financed projects cost consumers vastly more than expected and fail to become operational at all. CWIP has repeatedly weakened cost discipline, encouraged oversizing, and transferred the financial burden of speculation onto households and businesses.
Olson and his co-authors recommend eliminating CWIP or implementing strict caps, performance-based returns, clawbacks, or off-grid alternatives to protect ratepayers and restore market discipline.
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Photo Credits: adamkaz/E+/Getty Images; Noah Berger/AP Photo; Anadolu/Getty Images; Wong Yu Liang/Getty Images; Catherine McQueen/Getty Images; Probal Rashid/LightRocket/Getty Images |
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