‘Science’ and ‘the facts’ fall victim to the gargantuan political egos of Bill de Blasio and Andrew Cuomo.
New York Mayor Bill de Blasio announced this week that he was forced to close public schools—serving 1.1 million children—after the city’s coronavirus “positivity case” rate hit a seven-day rolling average of 3%. At a Wednesday afternoon news conference, Mr. de Blasio cited a “data-driven, science-driven” decision-making process. The school system, which had opened for part-time, in-person classes only six weeks ago, shut its doors the next day.
The decision angered parents, as the virus hasn’t been spreading in schools. Tens of thousands of children and staff have been tested for Covid-19, with a reported case rate of only 0.19%. The school system is thus 15 times as safe as the city at large, so it makes little sense to close the schools to fight a rising second wave of infection. Most European countries have kept schools open even while businesses remain closed. The World Health Organization advises that there have been only limited cases of student-to-student transmission, and that school closures aren’t an effective means of reducing community transmission. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has similarly concluded that the minor risks of keeping schools open for in-person learning are outweighed by the social and economic costs of closing them.
In New York, however, both Mr. de Blasio and Gov. Andrew Cuomo insist that the 3% seven-day rolling average of positive cases has some concrete bearing on policy. “We set a very clear standard and we need to stick to that standard,” the mayor explained, even as reports emerged that his own health officials disagreed.
In fact, the 3% mark is arbitrary—a standard plucked from thin air. Case positivity is a useful measure for gauging whether viral spread is increasing or decreasing. As a stand-alone indicator, it means next to nothing. Much depends on how many people are being tested. Unlike hospital admissions or deaths, case-positivity measurements can be tweaked downward by expanding the number of people getting tested—the denominator in the ratio. Mr. de Blasio alluded to this when he established “Get Tested Tuesdays” and hectored New Yorkers to get tested and retested even if they had no symptoms.
But if case positivity is too weak a metric by which to make major decisions, why was it the sole standard used to close the schools? Asked about this on Wednesday, Mr. de Blasio offered a decidedly unscientific answer. “We set a standard of 3% to keep faith with our families and with our educators and our staff,” he said. “That was the promise I made to everyone . . . so I think it’s important to keep consistency with that promise as we’re dealing with this new challenge.”
The mayor was alluding to a deal he cut with United Federation of Teachers, the city’s union, which resisted fiercely a return to work in September. The UFT agreed not to strike in exchange for Mr. de Blasio’s promise to close the schools if the citywide positivity rate hit 3%. When asked about labor sway on this matter, he skirted the question by insisting, weakly, “It’s not part of any collective-bargaining agreement.” Neither are the millions of dollars the teachers unions contributed to his campaigns.
For his part, Mr. Cuomo grew enraged when a Journal reporter noted that the mesh of city and state standards was confusing to close observers, not to mention parents trying to figure out if they ought to pack their kids’ lunch for the next day. “All right, first of all, let’s try not to be obnoxious and offensive in your tone. Because you’re 100% wrong,” Mr. Cuomo growled. “Follow the facts.” When the reporter pointed out that parents were confused, the governor lashed out: “No. They’re not confused. You’re confused.”
Another reporter offered that he thought the question legitimate. “I don’t really care what you think,” snapped the author of “American Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic.”
Though Messrs. Cuomo and de Blasio claim constantly to adhere to “the science” and “the facts,” they arrive at major decisions seemingly through divination. In March the mayor announced that the coronavirus dies on exposure to the air “within minutes.” Asked how he knew this, he replied cryptically, “God bless the child who’s got his own”—apparently a reference to the New York City Health Department’s expertise. “All information is valuable, but the information that we’re gleaning from our own direct experience is the most valuable to us,” he went on. “When you’re talking about something where there’s literally no one who has all the facts and that is a true statement.”
Mr. Cuomo may be better at extemporizing, but his policies are equally convoluted. He recently imposed a statewide 10 p.m. closing time for bars, restaurants and gyms—as though the virus intensifies at night. He blusters about quarantines for travelers and composes lists of states that are subject to his rules, but it’s all theater. Nobody is actually tracked or required to stay indoors.
New York City has enough troubles, with a fiscal crisis, rising crime and a population that can’t wait to leave. It would be nice if it weren’t also plagued by egomaniacal leaders posing as saints of rationality.
This piece originally appeared at The Wall Street Journal (paywall)
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Seth Barron is associate editor of City Journal.
This piece originally appeared in The Wall Street Journal