Poverty and Progress in New York II: Crime, Welfare Enrollment, and Economic Conditions Six Months into the de Blasio Administration
New York City’s resurgence over the past three decades has been characterized by greater fiscal stability, less crime, less dependence on cash welfare, and sustained economic growth. In many ways, these gains have been shared across all neighborhoods, rich and poor alike. However, because income gains, measured proportionately, have accrued more greatly to affluent households, Mayor Bill de Blasio has asserted that New York has become a “tale of two cities”—and has pledged to improve incomes and quality of life for the least well-off.
This paper, the second installment in the Manhattan Institute’s Poverty and Progress in New York series, seeks to gauge the extent to which the Mayor’s policies are improving conditions in the city’s poorest neighborhoods.
- Six months into the de Blasio administration, many categories of crime are down, but shootings are up 8 percent. It is unknown whether the latter indicates a temporary aberration—or is a sign that New York City’s decades-long crime decline has plateaued or reversed course.
- In all the precincts driving the increase in shootings, the usage of “stop, question, and frisk” is down dramatically, by as much as 99 percent on a year-over-year basis. The police department has been able, in past years, to drive crime down while also relying less on this tactic. However, the possibility of a correlation between fewer stops and more crime merits close scrutiny; the recent drop in stops—from the last year of the Bloomberg administration and the first year of the de Blasio administration—is much more dramatic than previous years’ declines.
- The citywide shooting uptick reflects not only certain precincts becoming more dangerous but also other precincts not becoming significantly safer.
- Four out of the ten poorest neighborhoods in the five boroughs saw shootings increase, accounting for a full three-quarters of the increase citywide.
- For the first six months of 2014, welfare enrollment is generally down, both citywide and in the ten poorest neighborhoods in the five boroughs. This goes for all three major programs: Cash Assistance, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and Medicaid.
- In the Bronx, the city’s poorest borough, unemployment is down while job growth and permitting activity are up, compared with the first six months of Mayor Bloomberg’s final year in office.
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