New Study Highlights Overlap in Earnings Between High School and College Graduates

A college degree is not the only path to a high-paying job

NEW YORK, NY – When it comes to higher education, the typical approach is to assume that more is better, whether that means “free college” or simply increasing access for more students. But according to a new Manhattan Institute report by policy analyst Connor Harris, the college payoff isn’t so simple. His original analysis of U.S. Census data provides a detailed picture of earnings by education level, showing that there is substantial overlap between the top half of high-school-only earners and bottom half of college graduates.

While a college degree more than pays off, on average, Harris finds that at the margin, moving from the top of the high school pool into the bottom of the college pool would likely provide little, if any, earnings boost. Furthermore, many recent college graduates land in jobs that do not even require a degree. The takeaway, according to Harris, is that other, cheaper career routes may be the best fit for many high school students, and we should work to better match these workers with opportunities.

The report’s key findings include:

• The top half of high school-only workers overlap with the bottom half of college graduates.
• The 75^th-percentile earner among high school-only workers outperforms the 25^th-percentile college graduate earner—that is, every individual among the top 25% of high school graduates outperforms every individual in the bottom 25% of college graduates.
• High school-only workers who reach the top of their earnings distribution often do so in occupations where entry-level positions offer a pathway to advancement. Many college graduates, by contrast, are employed in positions that do not require a degree.

Click here to read the full report.