New Report: The “Energy Transition” Delusion

New York, NY — The global energy crisis accompanying the invasion of Ukraine has made one thing clear: the world remains deeply dependent on hydrocarbons. It’s a delusion to think that solar, wind, and battery technologies can replace Russian energy supplies, never mind all the world’s use of oil, natural gas, and coal in a wholesale global “energy transition.” In a new Manhattan Institute report, senior fellow Mark Mills argues that the only path for ensuring affordable, reliable energy and vibrant economies is to increase hydrocarbon production, and that no country is better able to do that, nor stands to gain so much from it, as does the United States.

Employing world-class expertise in a comprehensive analysis, Mills systematically debunks the idea that hydrocarbons can be eliminated by using more solar, wind, and battery technologies, and details the compelling opportunities for improving hydrocarbon production efficiency. The report cuts to the heart of a public debate marked by impassioned rhetoric and aspirational projections, and points out that a future with dependable and affordable energy rests on three factors: (1) technology, (2) capital, and (3) regulations.

The second and third factors depend largely on politics that today are creating more barriers than incentives. But as to the first, Mills gives ample evidence for optimism. Central to Mills’ argument is that the ongoing revolutions in software and automation, increasingly applied to the oil and gas industries, promise far more, and more radical, improvements in hydrocarbon production efficiency than is possible in the physics of solar, wind, and battery technologies.

The benefits of this promise – including muting Russia’s weaponization of energy – will come from pursuing a true “all of the above” energy strategy, rather than the undeniable futility of trying to force a rapid and wholesale transition away from using hydrocarbons. The challenge for America’s political leadership is to find the courage and common sense to forge an energy path based on hard evidence and an energy “realpolitik” that acknowledges geopolitical realities, rather than the energy “transition” policies that are already causing real-world human and economic consequences.

Europe's misguided pursuit of that fantasy has been exposed by the Russian invasion. It’s a dangerous delusion to think that following that same path will lead to a different outcome for the United States.  

Click here to view the full report.