New Poll Shows Mamdani Ahead, Despite Unpopular Agenda; Stefanik Leads Democrats Statewide 

NEW YORK, NY – With New York City’s mayoral election just one week away, new data offer a clear snapshot of voters’ mindsets as they begin heading to the ballot box. Between October 22nd and 26th, 2025, the Manhattan Institute surveyed 600 likely voters for the 2025 NYC mayoral election and 300 registered voters across New York State. 
 
The results indicate that Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani remains on track to win the mayoralty—drawing 46% to former Governor Andrew Cuomo’s 31% and Guardian Angels CEO Curtis Sliwa’s 21%, once the 8% of voters who remain undecided are taken out of the equation. The poll reveals that Mamdani will likely win a simple plurality to secure the electoral victory, but with a sizable and divided anti-Mamdani portion of the electorate, he will fail to reach a majority.  

Despite Mamdani’s electoral strength, the poll reveals a dissonance in public support for his top policies. Results show that New Yorkers favor harsher penalties for fare evasion (60%), are eager to repeal the state’s 2019 bail reform law (60%), have hesitations about making buses free (58%), and support expanding gifted and talented programs in public schools (64%). 
 
Statewide, a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial matchup between Republican Elise Stefanik and Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul shows Stefanik leading by one point (43–42) among registered voters. While more than a year remains until Election Day, these findings underscore that New York’s next statewide race could be its most competitive in decades.

Click here to read all poll findings.