New Issue Brief: A Blueprint to Reduce Homicides in America

NEW YORK, NY — While growing murder rates still remain lower than what we experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, the rates at which homicides are solved, or “cleared,” have become alarmingly worse. In 1980, when violent crime began rising with the start of the crack epidemic, 71% of homicides were solved, according to FBI data. In 2020, we witnessed another sudden spike in homicides, but this time cases were only solved 50% of the time—a record-low clearance rate for these crimes. There are vigorous debates about what caused this homicide spike. Progressive prosecutors, de-policing, the Covid-19 pandemic, increased gun sales, violent protests, weakened pretrial detention and sentencing, and numerous other theories have been proposed by academics and law-enforcement professionals. Whatever the cause, the most pressing current issue regarding crime in the U.S. is how cities can reduce violent crime, particularly homicides, without disrupting civil liberties.

In a new Manhattan Institute issue brief, adjunct fellow Thomas Hogan explores four components, which he terms the “four pillars,” of violent crime prevention that criminal justice practitioners can rely on to halt the current spike in homicides in America. He argues the key is to pursue them in an integrated fashion. These four pillars are:

• Crime concentration: crime is extraordinarily concentrated across people, places, and times, and this can be leveraged in public safety strategies.
• Drug-trafficking and firearms prosecutions: these provide the intelligence information that allows violent crimes to be solved, and incapacitate violent offenders before they commit homicides.
• Vertical prosecution: pairing prosecutors with the police from the moment a major crime happens through conviction, a coordinated effort that is necessary in solving complex crimes and preserving the integrity of prosecutions.
• Precision policing and prosecution: combining the first three pillars, the police and prosecutors can focus their resources on the most violent offenders in the most vulnerable locations during the highest-crime periods.

The strategies have worked before, leading to the great American crime decline. Crime rates fell for decades and even once-violent cities like New York became relatively safe. If implemented again, police and prosecutors can change the course of history once more.

Click here to view the full issue brief.