On Trump’s widening lead in the polls.
The conventional wisdom has long held that Donald Trump is a divisive figure within the Republican Party and that many moderate voters will abandon him if he is the party’s nominee. Nikki Haley’s primary campaign, during which she has received nearly 40 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, is widely viewed as evidence for this proposition. President Biden meanwhile is viewed as a consensus candidate who will unite Democrats and win the general election against such a divisive figure as Trump.
It turns out that this view—that Biden is more the consensus candidate among Democrats than Trump is among Republicans—is wrong. This is a developing edge that may give Trump an advantage in the general-election campaign.
A new Harvard-Harris poll conducted this week gives Trump a six-point lead (48 percent to 42 percent) over Biden in a general-election matchup. Trump leads by a small margin (42 percent to 39 percent) among independent voters, which is an important factor of his advantage over Biden. Whichever candidate carries independents will likely win the general election. Trump’s slight advantage here bodes well for his general-election campaign.
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James Piereson is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.
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