Hillary Clinton Owes A Debt Of Gratitude To Donald Trump
Whether Trump remains a Republican or a third-party candidate, his presence will only help the Democrats
Donald Trump drew 9,000 people to a rally in Phoenix on Saturday. He is placing first or second among Republican primary candidates in some polls, including those in early voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
Why is Trump achieving such success? Here are three reasons.
First, it is an advantage for Trump not to be a politician in an era when people are upset with politicians. Many Republican activists see the offensiveness of Trump's rhetoric as evidence that he is willing to take unapologetically unpopular stands, despite overwhelming political pressure. They expected, but did not recognize, massive changes after each of the recent congressional elections.
Trump speaks in the bluntness of the businessman, not in the equivocation of the politician. Politicians go to great lengths not to offend anyone. Trump casually offends large segments of the population. Reporters accustomed to politicians are aghast at Trump's insouciant characterizations. Americans accustomed to the pabulum of politicians flock to Trump rallies.
Trump does not cite any political experience when he explains why he is qualified for president. Instead, he falls back on one of his favorite lines: “I'm really rich.” He calls it as he sees it. That's one reason why Herman Cain was so popular early in the 2012 election cycle before he had to pull out due to allegations of sexual impropriety — he was a fresh face.
Second, Trump is the only one who seems unambiguously in favor of passing radical reforms to stop illegal immigration. Many Americans are concerned about crime committed by illegal immigrants, especially in light of the shooting in San Francisco. They believe that neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party is willing to prevent more immigrants from coming.
No matter that, in 2012, Donald Trump called other Republican candidates “mean-spirited” in their immigration policies. Changing policies from one election cycle to the next does not often end well. Just ask Mitt Romney.
Other Republican candidates, such as Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Rick Perry, talk about securing the border. But they do not do it in such divisive terms as Trump, who in a speech at CPAC stated the he was the “king of building walls.” This is red meat to some voters, even though the modern way to secure borders is through drones and electronic devices, not costly and time-consuming walls.
Trump appeals to discouraged workers who think they are losing their jobs and being replaced by cheap immigrant labor. They think that the government is willing to have more crime and fewer American jobs in exchange for cheaper labor. Speaking about undocumented workers, he said: “These are people that shouldn't be in our country. They flow in like water.” It does not help that the labor force participation rate is the lowest since October 1977.
Finally, Trump spends a lot of time talking about trade deals. He finds a supposed cause for America's economic travails that resonates, even though untrue, by blaming our problems on foreign countries. Trump likes to frame trade deals as a competition between countries and then claim that only he is brave enough to stand up against the enemy. In his announcement speech, he said: “When was the last time anybody saw us beating, let's say, China in a trade deal? They kill us. I beat China all the time. All the time.”
That said, Trump will not likely go far. Several organizations have canceled contracts with him. For instance, NBC Universal is ending its relationship with Trump, including its reality show “Celebrity Apprentice.” Univision announced that it would not show a Spanish-language version of “Miss USA” and “Miss Universe.” Mexico, in protest, is not sending a competitor to Miss Universe this year. Chef José Andrés has refused to open a restaurant in the new Trump International Hotel in the old Post Office Pavilion in Washington D.C.
Trump has responded by attacking those organizations by name in recent speeches, and accusing them of supporting illegal immigration. His boisterous and overconfident reaction belies a political strategy that is simply out of control. Losing millions of dollars of revenue as an unintended consequence an offensive comment does not project the image of a competent business executive. Even if there is some hidden business rationale for this madness, it is harder for the president of the United States to explain to the American public why losing a substantial portion of revenue as a result of ill-advised comments is a good idea.
Trump is correct that the American government has been ineffective in international negotiations. Witness the utter humiliation of America in talks with China, Iran and Cuba. But it is not obvious that substituting bombast for cowardice is a substantial improvement.
Nor is history on Trump's side. Populist movements such as his do not last very long. While very conservative activists may be vocal, they do not make up the majority of the Republican electorate, especially during a high-turnout presidential primary.
Republican activists are increasingly worried about winning the election. Many were convinced that they would defeat Obama in 2012, and now are more concerned about electability.
Ultimately, people will be disturbed by Trump's brashness. People will prefer a safe bet to a candidate who is willing to make this comment about Mexican immigrants: “They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” Racists and protectionists may be vocal, but they do not constitute a majority of the Republican Party.
Nevertheless, Trump is cheapening the Republican brand. Because he is a celebrity, the media flock to him. Most media also dislike Republicans. The entire media focus is on how the other Republican candidates react to Trump. Instead of “What does Scott Walker say about health policy?” the media will ask “What does Scott Walker say about Donald Trump?” Trump's candidacy turns the Republican Primary into a soap opera starring Trump.
If he runs as a third-party candidate, all the energy will be channeled through Trump. The last presidential election that was shifted by a third-party candidate was 1992 when Ross Perot drained votes primarily from President George H.W. Bush. The beneficiary was a candidate named Bill Clinton. Few people remember Perot or his antics. But America had a new President Clinton. Hillary, no doubt, is cheering for Trump to help her in the same way that Perot helped her husband.
This piece originally appeared in WSJ's MarketWatch