Cruz's Gamble As The Only True Conservative May Pay Off
The new-generation Republican is direct, unyielding and may outlast his competitors
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz officially announced his presidential bid on Monday in an address at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va. In a rousing speech, he asked his listeners to imagine a time when Obamacare was repealed, Americans could pay a simple flat tax on a postcard and school choice would be “the civil-rights issue of the next generation.”
It sounds impossible, Cruz said, but it would be easier than winning Gen. George Washington's battles at Valley Forge or getting through the Great Depression. Those too were unimaginable at the time.
Cruz's pro-growth policies will resonate with many who want greater opportunities. His American Energy Renaissance Act would get rid of federal obstacles to energy exploration on federal lands, and allow more exports of oil and gas. If implemented, it would increase employment in the energy sector. He has taken a strong stand against the Federal Communication Commission's new Internet regulations, including the new Internet taxes that will be the result of the FCC's recent actions.
What effect will Cruz have on the presidential race? Will Cruz set a certain tone, which will force others to play his game?
Cruz's tone is nothing if not adversarial toward the Democrats and President Obama, but tone alone will not necessarily distinguish Cruz from other Republican candidates, nor change the dynamics of the race.
Other Republican candidates, such as neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, are equally adversarial. Carson has called Obamacare the worst policy since slavery, and Jindal said at an American Action Forum event earlier this month that Obama “may be the first president we've ever had who does not believe in American exceptionalism.”
Each of the Republican candidates has a distinct message, and each would have that message with or without Cruz in the race. Gov. Scott Walker is already moving further to the right, not as a reaction to Cruz, but to distinguish himself from former Gov. Jeb Bush. He is taking a more conservative stance on immigration to distance himself from Bush and present himself as a conservative alternative.
Bush, former Sen. Rick Santorum, former Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Rand Paul are banking on certain characteristics that they believe will separate them from Cruz.
For Bush, it is the elderly statesman who rises above the fray, who believes in the Common Core and who is pro-immigration. For Santorum and Huckabee, it is caring for the common man, and thus opposition to Cruz's libertarian economic policies. Paul is relying on broad libertarian appeal from people who are tired of the government interfering in their lives.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio altered his approach to immigration after the comprehensive bill passed the Senate, but that was long before Cruz entered the race. Immigration is a major domestic policy divide, and Rubio is more pro-immigration than Cruz.
Hence, Cruz's entrance into the race will not significantly alter the tone. It will not make announcements come any sooner, as several were already planned for April.
Cruz is just one among several conservative Republican presidential candidates. The question is whether he can be the last man standing in the conservative camp. There is a strong chance that Cruz is going to be the one candidate of the conservative movement who will succeed as other candidates fade. His best chance is to wait for others to fade away.
Bush is not well-liked outside of Washington D.C., and he's not doing anything to improve this. Four years ago, the Republican Party nominated a governor with a much more liberal record than Bush's. The difference is that Mitt Romney adopted the tone of the Republican Party. He railed against the expansion of the Republican Party, and in many cases, such as with immigration and abortion, bent over backwards to appeal to the most conservative elements of the party.
On two key issues, the Common Core and immigration reform, Bush not only offers a moderate message, but goes to no lengths to sell his position to the conservative base. Instead, he talks of winning the general election and losing the primary. Bush may be recruiting his father and brother's top lieutenants, and raking in donations, yet this does nothing to alter the deep misgivings of the Republican base.
Tens of millions of dollars of TV ads urging conservatives to moderate their message will do little to improve Bush's standing in critical early states. This is where Cruz sees an opportunity. Unlike Bush, Cruz is on the record as fighting the Obama agenda every inch of the way. He has spared no effort to put a halt to Obama's agenda, even if it means a night-long Senate address followed by a government shutdown.
Cruz is from a new generation of conservatives, one that is not only socially conservative, but staunchly libertarian on most economic issues. Recent primary results, such as Chris McDaniel's near victory over the notorious earmarker Thad Cochran in the Mississippi Senate primary, suggest that social conservatives with a record of expanding government are not in vogue.
Cruz's main opponents for conservative support are former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, both winners of prior Iowa caucuses. But neither is a small-government conservative. According to Census Bureau data, total state and local tax collections in Arkansas increased from $3.7 billion in 1996, Gov. Huckabee's first year in office, to $7.2 billion in 2007, his last year. Adjusted for inflation, this is a 32% increase.
Santorum wants to protect the “working man.” For instance, he advocated using government incentives to expand manufacturing, precisely to benefit American workers. The message of larger, useful government might have resonated a decade ago, but not now that people have seen it in practice with Obamacare, Dodd-Frank and the Internal Revenue Service's lost emails.
Other conservative candidates such as the gaffe-prone Ben Carson and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who faces increased in-state opposition to his signature tax initiative, are unlikely to raise the funds to run for office and may fade (in the case of Carson) or never quite take off (for Jindal). Despite widespread disdain for Cruz inside the Beltway, the Texas senator does have a history of expensive fundraisers amid Manhattan's financial elite, which has given him a small, but deep-pocketed, group of backers that may bankroll a national campaign.
That means Cruz will likely make a profound impression in the Republican primary, perhaps as the lone conservative voice against more moderate, better-funded contenders. Cruz has positioned himself as the reliable conservative, the man who is immune to Potomac fever. He has built a short, but spectacular, career of being the conservative movement's man in Washington, but this may prevent him from being the type of consensus builder who can win a national election.
Next winter Cruz might be the last man standing among conservatives, but in the end he might lose to a Republican who is less conservative and who has wider appeal among a broader segment of the voting population. Cruz is betting that most Republicans are as conservative as he is. Others are not.
This piece originally appeared in WSJ's Marketwatch
This piece originally appeared in WSJ's MarketWatch