Progressivism is on the march throughout much of the tristate area.
During this past year’s budget cycle in New Jersey, the main debate between the legislature and governor concerned whether to hike personal income or corporate taxes (they compromised by doing both).
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s once studiously cultivated centrist reputation is now a faint memory, due to his efforts to protect his left against Cynthia Nixon and Mayor Bill de Blasio.
But across the Long Island Sound, the future of state politics looks much different.
On Aug. 14, Connecticut Republicans will select their nominee for this November’s gubernatorial election. Unlike the lamb-for-the-slaughter ritual of party primaries elsewhere in the region, whichever candidate prevails will have a strong chance of winning the general election.
“Connecticut’s economy has not recovered since the Great Recession, unlike those of New York, New Jersey and the nation as a whole.”
The incumbent, Democrat Dannel Malloy, has the second-lowest approval ratings of any governor in the nation. Since 2010, Republicans have picked up dozens of seats in the Connecticut state legislature.
Connecticut remains staunchly blue by conventional measures. Democrats’ hold on the Congressional delegation is firm, and Hillary Clinton won the state soundly in 2016.
But, when it comes to state issues, the Connecticut electorate has grown weary of a broken fiscal and economic status quo.
Connecticut’s economy has not recovered since the Great Recession, unlike those of New York, New Jersey and the nation as a whole. Its gross state product is now smaller, in inflation-adjusted terms, than what it was in 2007. Households moving into the state are making roughly $30,000 less, on average, than those moving out.
Connecticut residents face some of the most onerous taxes in the nation, but there’s no fiscally responsible way to bring rates down since Connecticut’s debt burden also surpasses those of almost all other states. Connecticut’s pension system is one of the worst-funded in the nation.
With so much of the budget being devoted to the costs of the past, taxpayers have been paying more — Connecticut lawmakers have imposed three income tax increases over the past decade — but getting less in terms of services.
In the upcoming GOP primary, there are five candidates who divide up between businessmen (Bob Stefanowski, David Stemerman and Steve Obsitnik) and local politicians (Mark Boughton and Tim Herbst).
The businessmen are arguing that politicians had their chance and blew it, and only someone new to public office can be trusted to put the state’s affairs in order. The two politicians agree that outside leadership is critical but say that what that really means is Republican leadership.
In November, the Republican candidate will face either Ned Lamont or Joe Ganim.
Everyone remember Ned Lamont? A Greenwich-based former cable-TV executive and scion of an old-money family, Lamont enjoyed 15 minutes of fame during the Iraq War era when he defeated Joe Lieberman for Connecticut’s 2006 Democratic nomination for US senator. (Lieberman won the general, running as an independent candidate.)
Lamont unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2010, though this year he’s considered the front-runner. The only obstacle in his path is Ganim, the mayor of Bridgeport. Ganim was first elected mayor in 1991 but was forced to resign in 2003 after having been found guilty of a series of federal charges stemming from a shakedown scheme. He served seven years in prison and then was reelected mayor in 2015. The prospect of facing a limousine liberal or a convicted felon is, to the Connecticut GOP, not the most intimidating prospect.
Republicans’ greater challenges stem from an abundance of candidates, which, due to the primary rules, will likely mean a winner with only a plurality, and Democrats’ determination to try to make everything about Trump.
In an election year that’s likely to be generally bad for their party, the Connecticut GOP will have to work to keep concerns about the state’s budget and economy at the forefront of debate.
Democrats and independents collectively comprise about three-quarters of the state electorate. Republicans in Connecticut can win this year’s state election only by persuading tens of thousands of non-Republicans against using their vote for governor to express their allegiance to The Resistance.
Is split-ticket voting possible in modern American politics? Must state politics be shaped by national political dynamics? It’s questions like these that make this year’s gubernatorial election in Connecticut one of the most intriguing of the 2018 cycle — one certainly worth watching.
This piece originally appeared in the New York Post
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Stephen Eide is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. This piece was adapted from City Journal.
This piece originally appeared in New York Post