A Surprise for 2016 Presidential Politics: Outsiders Are In
Non-politicians rarely win the White House, but someone just might next year.
A year ago it would have seemed like folly for someone with no political experience to run for president. After all, with the exception of General Dwight Eisenhower, no one in the past 100 years has been elected to the nation’s highest office without holding another political office first. Ross Perot and Herman Cain are among many who have stumbled in their search for the presidency.
But circumstances are now different. With real estate magnate Donald Trump and neurosurgeon Ben Carson in the lead in many polls, running as a non-politician does not seem like such a foolish idea. It seems shrewd.
“Trump is attractive to voters not because of his policies, but because of his show of force, which contrasts with Obama’s weakness.”
In contrast, politicians are held in such low esteem that, in 2015, running as an insider is folly. Following behind Trump and Carson are Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, the two youngest in the race. Both are proudly running against the establishment. Across the aisle, in the Democrat camp, Sen. Bernie Sanders is running as an outsider rather than bragging about his decades of Senate service.
Although President Obama ran as a first-term senator, he was a product of the Chicago Democratic machine. The result? A foreign policy mess, an economy that is tottering at 2% growth (third-quarter GDP came in at 1.5%), millions of Americans who lost cherished health plans, and the lowest share of the population employed since the 1970s.
Congress has not done better. After two years of Democratic control of the House and the Senate, voters chose gridlock and gave the House to the Republicans in 2010. Then the Republicans regained the Senate in 2014. Still, Congress has passed few bills to send to Obama, and last week passed a budget that increased spending above the sequester caps. Congress now has a 13% approval rating.
Given the electorate’s desire for change, it was not folly for Trump to jump in as an outsider. He has been able to convert his supporters’ initial summer enthusiasm into a full-fledged field presence in major states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, with many volunteers. This gives him the potential to scoop up votes in the primaries.
Trump is attractive to voters not because of his policies, but because of his show of force, which contrasts with Obama’s weakness. Obama might not believe in American exceptionalism, but Americans do believe in it. They want someone who says he will make America great again. Trump doesn’t have his facts right, but voters don’t listen to facts.
Carson’s outsider status appeals to the evangelical base, the voters who came out for Rick Santorum in 2012 — and might have won him the election if the Republican National Committee had not called the primary season to an end. Recall that Santorum not only won the Iowa primary but also the most states after Mitt Romney. Carson’s donors are not preoccupied with foreign policy but with social issues. They are enthusiastically sending him a stream of small donations that are powering his campaign.
“The Washington establishment thought that it would be the kingmaker in the 2016 primaries. Instead, it became the punching bag.”
Last year, pundits were betting that executive experience was the key to the presidency. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush were favored candidates and Texas Gov. Rick Perry and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie had strong support. Now Walker and Perry have dropped out. Christie sounds authoritative, but Bridgegate has cast a shadow over his candidacy. Bush has retreated to New Hampshire and is trailing in the polls. So much for executive experience.
Throughout the first half of 2015, the chattering class obsessed over which candidates would gain the favor of the GOP’s wealthiest donors and most successful operatives. According to their logic, Washington’s high and mighty would ordain a candidate and the populace would follow. Now, according to the RealClearPolitics.com average, half of Republican voters support Trump and Carson, candidates who highlight their disdain for the Republican establishment.
After 2012’s ignominious and unforeseen defeat, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus called for a post-mortem. The general consensus was that if the establishment did a better job of planning the 2016 elections, Hillary would not win. The Washington establishment thought that it would be the kingmaker in the 2016 primaries. Instead, it became the punching bag.
Politics is full of surprises. The biggest surprise is that it’s no longer folly to run as an outsider.
This piece originally appeared in WSJ's MarketWatch