Despite keeping interest rates on hold at this week’s meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell insists the Fed is keeping its options open and that July “will be a live meeting.” And yet, May’s hike could well have been the last in this cycle.
True, if economic data continue to come in strong, the Fed may hike every other meeting, meaning in July and maybe even November, as the Fed’s economic projections suggest. But in the context of a hiking cycle in which the Fed raised rates by 5%, an additional quarter-point or two hardly matter.
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Stephen Miran is an adjunct fellow at the Manhattan Institute, co-founder of asset manager Amberwave Partners, and a former senior adviser for economic policy at the U.S. Treasury, 2020–21.
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