“You’re working harder. Your wages aren’t going up.”
— Hillary Clinton
“Make America great again.”
— Donald Trump
In 2004, Thomas Frank scored a hit with What’s the Matter with Kansas?, lamenting that voters from that state failed to recognize their economic interests and instead sided with Republicans year after year. To Frank, the idea that voters might have interests beyond their economic status was unthinkable.
“Trumpism is being driven primarily by cultural anxiety — by dissatisfaction with cultural change and perceived cultural decline.”
His claim, that they were simply manipulated by Republican candidates and could no longer see what was best for them, was rightfully ridiculed by conservatives. Frank’s critics argued that the Democratic policy agenda was not as obviously in their interests as he presumed. But they also pointed out that cultural concerns can be just as valid a driver of voter behavior as economic ones. Frank had made the mistake, common on the left, of assuming that economic concerns are preeminent.
Pundits and politicos of all ideological stripes are making the same mistake this primary season as they struggle to grasp the rise of Donald Trump. National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru has wisely counseled against strong single-factor explanations for his success, but the view that economic anxiety explains the rise of Trump has become prevalent on both the left and the right. There is, however, little evidence that points to that conclusion.
Start with what voters have said so far. We’re halfway through the Republican primary season, with 24 of the 50 states having held primaries or caucuses. Exit (or entrance) polls have been conducted in 15 states. (Unfortunately, since Super Tuesday on March 1, exit polls have been conducted only in Michigan and Mississippi.)
In all of these states, Republican voters were presented with four issues — jobs and the economy, immigration, terrorism, and government spending — and asked to name the most important one facing the country. “The economy and jobs” was the top concern in ten of the 15 states, and it was ranked second in the other five. That makes it sound like economic concerns have been paramount for voters, but it is hard to say without any comparison point.
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This piece originally appeared in National Review Online