After Donald Trump’s series of victories in the Republican Party’s March primaries, it became clear to everyone that Trump is the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. But the cheeseheads of Wisconsin may be poised to blunt Trump’s momentum. And if Trump loses Wisconsin, he may fail to gain the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the GOP nod.
Republican activists won’t support Trump on the second ballot
Barring an unforeseen collapse, it’s pretty much impossible for Ted Cruz to end up with more delegates than Donald Trump when the last states vote on June 7. And it’s impossible for John Kasich to come anywhere close. But as Trump’s erratic statements continue to accumulate, the #NeverTrump coalition is quietly organizing to deny Trump the nomination if Trump can’t win it on the first ballot. Many of the delegates bound to vote for Trump at the Republican National Convention in July will be free to vote for whomever they choose on a second or third ballot.
Reid Epstein of the Wall Street Journal last week reported on Ted Cruz’s superior organizational efforts in Louisiana, where Cruz may end up with 10 more delegates than Trump despite the fact that Trump attracted more voter support. Furthermore, now that Trump has renounced his pledge to support the GOP nominee, no matter what, Republicans feel no obligation to stick with him. Politico has reported that “already more than a hundred delegates are poised to break with him on a second ballot.”
Wisconsin is not winner-take-all
And that gets us to the math. As of April 2, Trump has 736 delegates, compared to Cruz with 463 and Kasich with 143. There are 959 delegates remaining, including those of North Dakota, which held a caucus on April 1 but whose delegates are unbound.
Trump needs to win 52 percent of the remaining delegates in order to secure the nomination. Cruz has to win 81 percent, and Kasich 114 percent.
Wisconsin votes on Tuesday, April 5. Some people have described Wisconsin as a “winner take all” state, but it’s somewhere in between that and a proportional allocation process. Wisconsin will allocate 42 delegates. 18 will go to the candidate who wins a plurality of the statewide vote. Three delegates will go to the winner of the plurality of the vote in each of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts.
If Cruz beats Trump in Wisconsin, there is a good chance Trump won’t make it to 1,237 delegates. For example, if Trump gains 12 delegates in Wisconsin to Cruz’s 30, and FiveThirtyEight’s projections about future states hold, Trump will finish with 1,164 delegates: 73 short of the total he needs.
Cruz is leading in the last three polls conducted in Wisconsin. Most notably, the Marquette Law School poll—a respected survey in the state—found Cruz up 10 points, 40 percent to 30 percent, with Kasich at 21 percent. Fox Business also has Cruz up 10, and Public Policy Polling has Cruz up 1. All of this momentum has led FiveThirtyEight to project that Cruz has a 94 percent chance of winning Wisconsin.
California on June 7 is the biggest wildcard
Key dates after Wisconsin include April 19, when New York votes; and April 26, when Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania vote. Many of those states should be favorable territory for Donald Trump. Of note, only 17 of Pennsylvania’s 71 delegates are bound to the statewide winner; the remainder go into the convention unbound: a dangerous prospect for Trump.
Ultimately, we won’t know Trump’s fate until June 7, when the biggest state of them all—California—goes to the polls, and puts its 172 delegates up for grabs. Also at stake are Montana, New Mexico, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
California will award 10 delegates to the statewide winner, and 3 delegates to the winner of each of California’s 53 congressional districts. 3 more will be allocated by the state Republican Party. If Trump wins all 172, he could lock up his majority. But if he splits the state with Cruz and Kasich, and doesn’t outperform in the intervening states, he won’t get there.
Anti-Trump forces have plenty to fight for
Mainstream Republicans are increasingly discouraged about the possibility of a Trump nomination. And even if Trump loses the GOP nod, he could run as a third party candidate, ensuring the election of Hillary Clinton. But the integrity of the Republican Party is worth fighting for. The integrity of the conservative movement is worth fighting for.
Both of those entities will be broken with Trump at the top of the ticket. But if Wisconsin goes to Cruz, Republican voters will have a chance to fight off the Trump infection and regroup for 2020.
This piece originally appeared at Forbes
This piece originally appeared in Forbes